for Friday, 15 July 2011 [7:25 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 14 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (08W).
MA-ON MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 170 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
MAJOR TYPHOON MA-ON [08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Fri 15 July 2011
Source: JTWC Warning #016
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Major Typhoon MA-ON (08W) attains Category 4 status as it maintains its Westward movement. Meanwhile, LPA 92W has strengthened into Tropical Storm TOKAGE (HANNA) and is moving towards the much-powerful Typhoon MA-ON. Click here to view the latest advisory on TOKAGE.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Japan & Korea should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (08W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri July 15 2011
Location of Eye: 20.7º N Lat 140.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 460 km (248 nm) South of Iwo To
Distance 2: 615 km (332 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 1480 km (800 nm) ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 1965 km (1060 nm) ENE of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 215 kph (115 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph (140 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Kyushu-Shikoku Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 310 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 1110 km (600 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3/9 PM JST Fri July 15
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MA-ON (08W) is expected to turn WNW to NW-ward and continue to intensify for the next 1 to 2 days. It shall be near-Super Typhoon (Category 4) by tomorrow afternoon (July 16). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SAT): Still intensifying as it moves closer to the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 465 km SSW of Iwo To [2AM JUL 16: 21.0N 139.4E @ 220kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SAT): At near-Super Typhoon strength as it turns NW...approaching the NE corner of the PAR...about 1120 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM JUL 16: 21.5N 137.4E @ 230kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its near-Super Typhoon strength...getting ready to enter the PAR...about 900 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM JUL 17: 22.6N 135.6E @ 230kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Well inside the NE corner of the PAR...about 715 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM JUL 17: 23.9N 134.3E @ 230kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 215 km/hr (115 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (08W) is a Category 4 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to intensify through the next 24 to 48 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers (165 nautical miles). MA-ON remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,110 kilometers (600 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly as it turns sharply towards the NNW...exits the PAR [2PM JUL 18: 26.9N 132.5E @ 220kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to Category 3...tracking Northward as it starts to veer NNE-ward...approaching the southern coastal areas of Kyushu and Shikoku (Japan) [2PM JUL 19: 30.5N 132.1E @ 205kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over Shikoku...crossing the Central portion of the island...becoming Extratropical [2PM JUL 20: 33.9N 133.6E @ 195kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
MA-ON's (08W) powerful circulation continues to display a 19-km cloud-filled eye w/ strong eyewall convection especially along the southern portion. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE (19-KM) - remains over water (Northwestern Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 310 mm (high) near the center of MA-ON (08W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) FRI 15 JULY POSITION: 20.6N 141.4E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH OF IWO
TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD FILLED 10 NM
EYE WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. A 150411Z AMSRE 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE AND EYE-WALL, AND CONFIRMS A LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TY 08W. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMAGE AND THE 15/0532Z PGTW EYE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 125 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED MESO-
SCALE ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER THE SYSTEM CAUSING ENHANCED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL TO THE NORTHWEST IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY, WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AND SUPPRESSING OUTFLOW. TY 08W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS AND
TURNING POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND WITHIN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN JAPAN IT SHOULD
WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY DUE TO A MODERATE INCREASE IN VWS. TY MA-ON IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF KYUSHU JUST
BEFORE TAU 120, AS IT RE-CURVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEGINS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT, WITH ECMWF AND UKMO NOW DEPICTING A SHARPER RE-CURVATURE
IN THE LATER TAUS, WHICH HAS TIGHTENED THE AIDS ENVELOPE. THERE
STILL REMAINS SOME DISPARTIY AS TO HOW FAR WESTWARD THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK AND INTERACT WITH TD 09W BEFORE MAKING ITS EXPECTED POLEWARD
TURN. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST
AND IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODERATE
DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TD 09W...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MA-ON (08W)...go visit our website @:
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