for Wednesday, 27 July 2011 [12:40 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday July 26 2011):
Currently issuing 3-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight & 3:00 AM) on NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN [JUANING/10W/1108]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Wed 27 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #008/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN (JUANING) has intensified while maintaining its slow WNW-track towards Central Luzon...remains a big threat to Luzon.
At 12:00 AM Local Time, Typhoon2000 Automated Weather Station in Naga City (13.6N 123.2E) has recorded wind gust of 20.9 kph blowing from the WSW, with barometric pressure of 1000.6 millibars & 48-hr. Rainfall Accumulation of 245 mm.
Residents and visitors along the Bicol Region & the whole of Luzon should closely monitor the progress of NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 AM PhT Wed July 27 2011
Location of Center: 14.8º N Lat 122.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 80 km (43 nm) NNW of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 2: 120 km (65 nm) East of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 3: 140 km (75 nm) NNW of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 170 km (93 nm) SE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 5: 175 km (95 nm) SSE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 210 km (113 nm) SE of Cabanatuan City
Distance 7: 195 km (105 nm) East of Metro Manila
Distance 8: 240 km (130 nm) ESE of Clark/Angeles City
Distance 9: 300 km (163 nm) SE of Dagupan City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Aurora-Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Infanta: Wed Morning [7-8AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 320 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 10-20 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 PM PhT Tue July 26
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN & THE REST OF VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow. Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs! PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) The above areas will experience stormy weather - where winds of 60-100 kph can be expected tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight & tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is expected to turn WNW-ward into Central Luzon & across the South China Sea within the next 2 days. It shall weaken upon traversing Luzon and re-intensify upon emerging over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW MORNING (WED): Along the coast of Northern Quezon, after passing across Polillo Islands...prepares to make landfall....about 70 km SE of Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija [8AM JUL 27: 15.2N 121.6E @ 65kph]. This system is expected to make landfall over Dingalan Bay tomorrow morning (between 9-10 AM)...and cross Nueva Ecija-Tarlac-and Pangasinan tomorrow morning until the afternoon. It will pass in the vicinity of Cabanatuan City approx. noontime tomorrow, and will pass near Dagupan City around sunset tomorrow.
TOMORROW EVENING (WED): Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) upon crossing the southern portions of Northern Luzon...off the west coast of Pangasinan...about 90 km WNW of Dagupan City [8PM JUL 27: 16.2N 119.5E @ 55kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Regains Tropical Storm strength as it moves away from Western Luzon, across the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea)...about 350 km WSW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8AM JUL 28: 17.3N 117.1E @ 75kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it gains more strength while over the South China Sea...about 475 km ESE of Hainan Island, China [8PM JUL 28: 18.1N 114.9E @ 95kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is a Tropical Storm (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. NOCK-TEN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles) across.
NORTHERN QUEZON-SOUTHERN AURORA: Making landfall over Dingalan Bay...about 50 km SSW of Baler, Aurora [ETA: between 9:00-10:00 AM PhT Today].
PANGASINAN: About 15 km SSW of Dagupan City [ETA: between 5:00-6:00 PM PhT Today].
FRIDAY EVENING: Weakens - as it approaches the northeast coast of Hainan Island [8PM JUL 29: 19.4N 111.9E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Downgraded to a TD upon crossing Hainan Island...moving along Gulf of Tonkin [8PM JUL 30: 20.0N 108.9E @ 55kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Making landfall over Northern Vietnam [8PM JUL 31: 20.1N 105.8E @ 45kph].
**Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that NOCK-TEN will turn WNW to NW-ward and cross Northern Luzon early tomorrow morning...making landfall along Baler, Aurora and crossing Northern Luzon - if the strong High Pressure Steering Ridge north of the storm weakens abruptly.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) circulation being affected by the land terrain of Bicol Peninsula, but managed to re-organize. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Bicol Region, Southern Quezon & Polillo Islands. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting most parts of Luzon including Metro Manila, Northern Samar, Masbate, Mindoro, Marinduque, & Southern Tagalog Provinces. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 320 mm (high) near the center of MA-ON (INENG), especially along the southern portion. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Depression 11W (UNNAMED) accelerating NW-ward across the Caroline Islands...may reach Tropical Storm status later today. Its center was located near lat 9.3N lon 142.0E...about 550 km SW of Guam, CNMI...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
In Effect: CAMARINES PROVINCES, ALBAY, CATANDUANES, AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, NUEVA ECIJA, ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, BULACAN, BATAAN, RIZAL, CAVITE, LAGUNA, BATANGAS, QUEZON, POLILLO ISLAND, & METRO MANILA.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides.
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN & THE REST OF VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN & THE REST OF VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
The above areas will experience stormy weather - where winds of 60-100 kph can be expected tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight & tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight & tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 PM (12 GMT) TUE 26 JULY POSITION: 14.5N 122.9E.
>> NOCK-TEN, meaning: Bird. Name contributed by: Laos.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS NOCK-TEN (JUANING)...go visit our website @:
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