for Wednesday, 20 July 2011 [7:30 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday July 18 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (INENG).
MA-ON (INENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MA-ON [INENG/08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 024
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 20 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #032/Sat-Radar Fixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The core of Typhoon MA-ON (INENG) has moved East, along the SW Coast of Kii Peninsula...possible landfall expected along the southernmost portion of Wakayama Prefecture within the next few hours. Tropical Storm to Near-Typhoon Conditions expected across the Kii Peninsula (Southern Honshu) today.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (INENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed July 20 2011
Location of Eye: 33.5º N Lat 135.0º E Lon {Radar Fix}
Distance 1: 45 km (25 nm) WSW of Tanabe, Japan
Distance 2: 80 km (43 nm) SSW of Wakayama, Japan
Distance 3: 130 km (70 nm) East of Kochi, Japan
Distance 4: 165 km (90 nm) SE of Okayama, Japan
Distance 5: 495 km (267 nm) WSW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: East @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Wakayama Prefecture
CPA [ETA] to Tokyo: Thu Morning [2-4AM JST]
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (SE of center): 100 mm (Med-High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1110 km (600 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 AM JST Wed July 20
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MA-ON's (INENG) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
MA-ON (INENG) is expected to be downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) later this morning upon crossing the Southernmost part of Wakayama Prefecture. This large system will continue moving East to ESE-ward back into the NW Pacific Ocean for the next 2 days, and will regain Typhoon status. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system. 
THIS AFTERNOON (WED): Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) after crossing the southernmost part of the Wakayama Prefecture...about 120 km ESE of Tanabe, Japan [2PM JUL 20: 33.5N 136.7E @ 110kph]. TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (THU): Moving ESE across the NW Pacific Ocean...about 310 km SSW of Tokyo, Japan [2AM JUL 21: 33.0N 138.9E @ 110kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON (THU): Continues tracking ESE, re-intensifying over water...about 420 km SSE of Tokyo, Japan [2PM JUL 21: 32.1N 141.0E @ 110kph]. FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Regains Typhoon intensity, begins turning East to ENE...about 550 km SE of Tokyo, Japan [2AM JUL 22: 31.7N 143.2E @ 120kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (INENG) is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued weakening is expected within the next 12-24 hours due to land interaction. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 270 kilometers (145 nautical miles) from the center. MA-ON remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,110 kilometers (600 nautical miles) across. WAKAYAMA PREFECTURE: Crossing the southernmost portion...about 30 km South of Tanabe City [ETA: between 8:00-11:00 AM JST Today]. SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS)...accelerates NE-ward across the open waters of the NW Pacific [2AM JUL 23: 34.1N 147.5E @ 110kph]. SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to lose strength as it rapidly accelerates NE-ward [2AM JUL 24: 37.7N 151.6E @ 100kph]. MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Becoming Extratropical...weakens further as it moves into cooler sea-surface temperatures (SST) of the NW Pacific Ocean [2AM JUL 25: 42.7N 156.7E @ 95kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MA-ON's (INENG) very large circulation has started to deteriorate as it interacts with the rugged terrain of Shikoku. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: DISSIPATING CLOUD-FILLED EYE - remains over water or near the SW Coast of Kii Peninsula...not yet over land area. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). WEAKENING EYEWALL - spreading & affecting Eastern Shikoku & the Wakayama Prefecture. Near-Typhoon Conditions with Near-Typhoon Force Winds (86-118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Rest of Shikoku, & Kii Peninsula (off Southern Honshu) today until early tomorrow. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the whole of Japan except for Hokkaido. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 100 mm (med-high) near the center of MA-ON (INENG), especially along the SE portion. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic). COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Kyushu, Shikoku, & Southern Honshu today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Japan and the outlying islands of Okinawa, Ryukyu, Chichijima, Iwo To and other neaby areas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) WED 20 JULY POSITION: 33.6N 134.8E.
*TYPHOON (TS) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST-SOUTH-
WEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ABOUT TO
MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE KII PENINSULA IN SOUTHWESTERN HONSHU. CLOUD
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY
DURING THE PAST TWO HOURS, POTENTIALLY AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION
WITH LAND. A 19/1119Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANTS OF TS 08W. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS A STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE
NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT POSITION IS HIGH BASED ON RADAR
IMAGERY FROM SHIKOKU AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
INTENSITY FROM THE 19/1200Z POSITION WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. CURRENT INTENSITY (65 KNOTS) IS ALSO BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 55
TO 77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES TS MA-ON IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS STR BUILDS DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS, TS 08W WILL BEGIN TO STEER SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST AND AWAY
FROM HONSHU. THE STORM WILL ALSO BE INFLUENCED BY A WEAKENING OF
THE STR TO THE EAST UNTIL TAU 48. AFTER THIS POINT, THE EASTERNMOST
EXTENT OF THE STR (EAST OF 150E) WILL BUILD AND BEGIN STEERING MA-ON
TO THE NORTHEAST. LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A SLOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL RESULT
IN WEAKENING AFTER TAU 96. AS A RESULT OF THE ADJUSTED 19/1200Z
INTENSITY, INTENSITIES ON THIS FORECAST HAVE BEEN INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, THE NORTHERN OUTLIER;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 12-18HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MA-ON (INENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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