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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Oct 22 2010):
Just updated the FLASH ANIMATION for MEGI...now at 62 hours! Meanwhile, T2K continues to issue 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TY MEGI (JUAN).
MEGI (JUAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
TYPHOON MEGI [JUAN/15W/1013]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 032
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sat 23 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #041/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon MEGI (JUAN) has just made landfall along the coast of Fujian, just to the SW of Xiamen City. Typhoon Conditions now being felt across the area.
Residents and visitors along Southern & Southeastern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of MEGI (JUAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 36 hours)*
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sat Oct 23 2010
Location of Eye (Filled-in) 24.1º N Lat 117.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 55 km (30 nm) SW of Xiamen, China
Distance 2: 135 km (73 nm) ENE of Shantou, China
Distance 3: 305 km (165 nm) NW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 4: 420 km (227 nm) ENE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Fujian-Jiangxi Area
18-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 75 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 975 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft (6.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Sat Oct 23
MEGI will quickly dissipate along the rugged terrain of Fujian Province later today and will be just an area of low pressure decaying while moving northward across SE China tomorrow [8AM OCT 24: 25.8N 118.2E @ 65kph...8PM OCT 24: 27.2N 118.6E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. MEGI is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...and will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm in just a few hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 30 kilometers (15 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 205 kilometers (110 nautical miles). MEGI is a shrinking average-sized tropical cyclone, measuring about 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles) across.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 36 hours)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
MEGI's convective circulation continues to breakdown and shrink. Its eye has already filled-in due to the effects of land interaction. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
FILLED-IN EYE - Onshore, off Southern Fujian...about 55 km SW of Xiamen City.
EYEWALL - now affecting Southern Fujian...the northern eyewall moving in the vicinity of Xiamen City...while the Western and Southern Eyewall are passing along the area north of Shantou City. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected at this moment along these areas.
INNER RAINBANDS - continuing to affect most parts of Southern Fujian and portions of Eastern Guangdong. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these areas today.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting Western Taiwan and the Chinese provinces of Eastern Guangdong, Fujian, and Jiangxi. Moderate to strong winds (<65 kph) with passing on-and-off showers, squalls or thunderstorms can be expected along these areas today.
18-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 40 mm (light rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 75 mm (moderate) near the center of MEGI [view current NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Western Taiwan...and in Eastern Guangdong and Fujian Provinces in China today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from large swells and Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern & Southeastern China and Taiwan today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY MEGI (JUAN)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THE
EYEWALL HAS COLLAPSED AND CORE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM. INFRARED
ANIMATION SHOWS MARKED WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, YET WATER VAPOR ANIMATION VERIFIES THAT BOTH
POLEWARD AND EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS REMAIN WELL-DEVELOPED.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 222116Z SSMI/S PASS ALSO VERIFIES
THAT THE MICROWAVE EYE HAS MAINTAINED INTEGRITY, BUT THE 91 GHZ
IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVELS ARE BEGINNING TO TILT AWAY
FROM THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, BUT AT THE
BOUNDARY LEVELS IT IS BEGINNING TO INGEST MODIFIED CONTINENTAL
POLAR (CP) AIR FLOWING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CHINA. SURFACE
RADAR IMAGERY FROM TAIWAN INDICATES THE STORM IS MAINTAINING A
NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE CHAOZHOU PROVINCE. POSITION IS BASED
PRIMARILY ON MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY, WITH HELP FROM WEATHER RADAR
IMAGERY FROM TAIWAN. INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
A DVORAK INTENSITY RATING OF 3.5 FROM PGTW AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM COASTAL CHINA....(more)
>> MEGI, meaning: Catfish. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE & INFORMATION SERVICE
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 18 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MEGI (JUAN)...go visit our website @:
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