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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Oct 16 2010):
Now issuing 3-hrly web, SMS & email advisories on MEGI (JUAN). The HOURLY POSITION ESTIMATE will start once the system is less than 200 km away from land.
MEGI (JUAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 260 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
SUPER TYPHOON MEGI [JUAN/15W/1013]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 013
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sun 17 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #017/SatFix/Recon
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Super Typhoon MEGI (JUAN) turns into a Category 5 howler...endangers Northern Luzon. A US Navy Hurricane Hunter Plane (C-130) has reported outbound 1-min surface winds of 270 kph (146 kts). Philippine Storm Warning Signal #3 now hoisted in Cagayan and nearby provinces (check bottom page for the complete list).
Residents and visitors along Northern and Central Luzon particularly Cagayan and Isabela should closely monitor the progress of MEGI (JUAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs! The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tonight until tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph...and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sun Oct 17 2010
Location of Eye: 18.6º N Lat 126.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 495 km (267 nm) East of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 505 km (273 nm) SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 510 km (275 nm) ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 510 km (275 nm) ENE of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 5: 530 km (285 nm) NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 615 km (332 nm) ENE of Laoag City
Distance 7: 720 km (390 nm) NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 260 kph (140 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 315 kph (170 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Cagayan-Isabela Area
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 350 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 908 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 5
Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 ft (9.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: >18 ft [>5.5 m]
T2K TrackMap #005 (for Public): 12 PM PhT Sun Oct 17
MEGI is currently showing a 28-km clear eye...a sign that the howler is having an "explosive deepening" intensification. At 7:39 AM (23:39 GMT) this morning, a US Navy C-130 Reconnaissance Aircraft reported maximum outbound surface winds of 146 kts...270 kph, with a very low pressure of 908 millibars. The super typhoon is expected to continue moving westward across the Philippine Sea for the next 6 hours, before diving its track to the WSW through 48 hours. MEGI is forecast to continue intensifying...and will reach its peak strength of 270 km/hr tonight. The howler will be off the coast of Cagayan tomorrow morning as it prepares to make landfall [8PM OCT 17: 18.5N 125.1E @ 270kph...8AM OCT 18: 18.0N 122.9E @ 260kph]. The powerful core of MEGI (eye and eyewall) is now expected to make landfall over Southern Cagayan around noontime tomorrow...traversing the provinces of Cagayan...Apayao...Kalinga...Abra...and Ilocos Sur - Monday afternoon until early Tuesday morning. It will be downgraded to a Category 2 typhoon upon crossing Northern Luzon due to its interaction with the Sierra Madre and Cordillera Mountain Ranges [8PM OCT 18: 17.5N 120.7E @ 175kph]. Projected Landfall Area (Time): South of Escarpada Point, Northern Cagayan or along the Cagayan Mountains...about 55 km ENE of Tuguegarao City Monday noontime. MEGI will pass very close to Tuguegarao City tomorrow between 1-2 PM Monday...and will be about 15 km South of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur between 9-10 PM. It will be over the South China Sea...regaining strength by Tuesday morning [8AM OCT 19: 17.1N 118.3E @ 185kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 260 km/hr (140 knots) with higher gusts. MEGI is now a Category 5 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...some strengthening is still likely prior to landfall over Cagayan tomorrow. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 270 kilometers (145 nautical miles). MEGI is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles) across.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Slows down while over the central part of the South China Sea...moving farther away from Luzon as it exits PAR...starts to turn WNW [8AM OCT 20: 17.2N 116.2E @ 195kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Moving slowly WNW in the direction of Southern China (Western Guangdong)...still intensifying [8AM OCT 21: 17.7N 114.8E @ 205kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Approaching the southern coast of Guangdong (just south of Hong Kong) with increased wind speed of 215 kph [8AM OCT 22: 18.8N 113.5E @ 215kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MEGI's core (eye and eyewall) and its rainbands continues to remain over the warm Philippine Sea...and are not yet affecting any major land areas at this time. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds will be felt across Northeastern Luzon, particularly Cagayan and Isabela beginning tonight or around midnight, Oct 18...turning into Typhoon Conditions throughout Monday (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 350 mm (heavy) near the center of MEGI, especially along the northern portion (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount). Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of more than 18 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal and beach front areas of Northern Luzon beginning tonight until tomorrow. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern Luzon including Bicol Region.
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1, 2 & 3 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for TY MEGI (JUAN)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tonight until tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph...and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
*SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 162254Z SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-
DEFINED 15 NM EYE WITH A CONCENTRIC EYE WALL AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
RJTD AND PGTW 17/00Z EYE FIXES. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, SUPER
TYPHOON MEGI HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES 0F 140 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND RJTD, CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATES OF 137 KNOTS AT
16/22Z, AND AN AIRCRAFT VORTEX MESSAGE AT 16/2339Z INDICATING
MAXIMUM OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OF 120 KNOTS, MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE OF 908 MB (EQUIVALENT TO 153 KNOT VMAX ON THE KNAFF-ZEHR
SCALE), AND MAXIMUM OUTBOUND SURFACE WINDS OF 146 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST REMAINS
VIGOROUS. THE TRACK HAS FLATTENED OUT AND STY MEGI IS NOW TRACKING
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING
>> MEGI, meaning: Catfish. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
RECENT TYPHOON2000 TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on STY MEGI (JUAN)...go visit our website @:
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