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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday Oct 26 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly SMS, web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TY CHABA (KATRING).
CHABA (KATRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON CHABA [KATRING/16W/1014]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 015
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 27 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #022/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon CHABA (KATRING) upgraded to Category 2 as it gained more strength over the past 12 hours...barely moving and wobbling hundreds of kilometers to the east of Batanes or over the North Philippine Sea.
Residents and visitors along Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the progress of CHABA.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed Oct 27 2010
Location of Eye: 20.5º N Lat 127.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 625 km (337 nm) East of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 665 km (360 nm) South of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 700 km (378 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 815 km (440 nm) SE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 350 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft (7.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
T2K TrackMap #11 (for Public): 6 AM PhT Wed Oct 27
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
CHABA is expected to start moving slowly Northward within the next 24 hours before it recurves toward the NE - in the direction of Okinawa-Ryukyus Area & Southern Japan on Thursday. This system will continue to intensify before it leaves the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), reaching Category 4 on Thursday afternoon. CHABA will pass close to Okinawa Island on Friday morning between 10-11 AM Japan Time (01-02 GMT) - with a close distance of 100 km to the east of Kadena Air Base. [2AM OCT 28: 22.4N 127.0E @ 205kph...2PM OCT 28: 23.7N 127.4E @ 215kph...2AM OCT 29: 25.1N 128.1E @ 195kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 165 km/hr (90 knots) with higher gusts. CHABA is now a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening is still expected today until tomorrow (Thursday). Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles). CHABA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles).
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Begins Extratropical transition as it accelerates NE-ward - passing close to Naje Island...about 340 km NE of Naha, Okinawa [2AM OCT 30: 28.6N 130.5E @ 140kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm and becomes Extratropical...making landfall over Southern Honshu...about 110 km South of Osaka, Japan [2AM OCT 31: 33.3N 135.4E @ 100kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving fast towards the NE away from Japan...just off the coast of NE Honshu...about 180 km ENE of Sendai, Japan [2AM NOV 01: 39.0N 142.8E @ 85kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CHABA maintains a strong radial circulation with deep raincloud convection near its center. Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
SMALL ROUND EYE [15-km Diameter] - remains at sea (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - remains at sea (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER SPIRAL RAINBANDS - remains at sea (Philippine Sea)...not affecting land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected within these bands.
OUTER SPIRAL RAINBANDS - now spreading across Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands, Where moderate to strong winds (<65 kph) can be expected along these bands today. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 350 mm (heavy) near the center of CHABA [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Batanes, Eastern Taiwan, Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands today. Minimal to moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern & Eastern Luzon today. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with isolated to scattered afternoon or evening showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: THE WHOLE PHILIPPINES. Light to moderate North to variable winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected today. The prevailing strong La Niña conditions over the Pacific Ocean and the presence of Typhoon CHABA (KATRING) enhances the ITCZ to be more active across the Philippines.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY CHABA (KATRING)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1610.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, WHICH HAS AIDED
INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD
AND AN OFF-HOUR 26/1930Z PGTW ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS.
A BUILDING EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS FORCED
THE SYSTEM ONTO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS,
RESULTING IN A TIGHTER CPA TO OKINAWA. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE IS NOW
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO MAKE A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH. CHABA IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY
AS IT CRESTS THE RIDGE NEAR TAU 36 AND BEGINS ITS NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK. INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS BEEN MINIMAL THUS
FAR BUT WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ONCE THE STORM CROSSES
25 NORTH, WHERE IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TRACK THROUGH
TAU 48 BUT THE MAJORITY STEER THE SYSTEM EAST OF OKINAWA...(more)
>> CHABA, meaning: Tropical flower (the shoeflower, genus hibiscus). Name contributed by: Thailand.
RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY CHABA (KATRING)...go visit our website @:
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