for Wednesday, 06 October 2010 [7:15 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Oct 06 2010):
Currently issuing the 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD 14W (UNNAMED).
14W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 06 October 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #003/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 14W (UNNAMED) drifting very slowly northeastward along the coast of Northern Hainan...broad rain bands affecting Hainan and Western Guangdong.
Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Western Guangdong should closely monitor the progress of 14W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 24 hours)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed Oct 06 2010
Location of Center: 20.2º N Lat 110.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 15 km (28 nm) NW of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 2: 125 km (68 nm) SSW of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 3: 470 km (255 nm) WSW of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Coastal Guangdong
18-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 125 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Wed Oct 06
14W is expected to slowly weaken and dissipate while along the coast of Northern Hainan or off the South China Sea today until the early morning of Friday [2AM OCT 07: 20.4N 110.8E @ 55kph...2AM OCT 08: 20.5N 111.6E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts...slow weakening is expected through the next 2 days as unfavorable upper-level winds (aka. vertical wind shear) and land interaction affects 14W.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
14W will continue to bring bad weather across Hainan Island...the Gulf of Tonkin...and Western Guangdong within 24 to 48 hours. Moderate to strong winds of up to 50 km/hr can be expected within the bands of 14W (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 18-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 125 mm (moderate) near the center of 14W (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 14W (UNNAMED)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1410.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS, TD 14W CROSSED
OVER HAINAN ISLAND WITHOUT WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. ITS PROXIMITY TO
THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE AND HAINAN ISLAND ON THE
EQUATORWARD SIDE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ITS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM DESPITE ITS RETURN TO AN OVER-WATER TRACK. FROM TAU 24
THROUGH TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A ZONE OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH VWS INCREASING TO OVER 30 KNOTS
POLEWARD OF HAINAN ISLAND. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT HAD BEEN SUSTAINING
THE SYSTEM EVEN AS IT MADE AN OVER-LAND TRACK IS SHOWING THE EARLY
SIGNS OF SUPRESSION IN ADVANCE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLING NEAR SHANGHAI IS
PUMPING MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT, WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS TD 14W
MOVES TOWARD THE ZONE OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE RESULTING
COMBINATION OF VWS IN THE UPPER LEVELS COUPLED WITH THE INFLOW OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CAP OFF
DEVELOPMENT OF TD 14W BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48...(more)
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 18 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 14W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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