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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Oct 24 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 16W (KATRING).
16W (KATRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W [KATRING]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 007
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sun 24 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #011/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
After barely moving for the past 6 hours, Tropical Depression 16W (KATRING) has started crawling WNW while over the central part of the Philippine Sea.
Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 16W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with isolated to scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Light to moderate SW, South, SE winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today. The prevailing strong La Niña conditions over the Pacific Ocean enhances the ITCZ to be more active across the Philippines.
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sun Oct 24 2010
Location of Center: 15.7º N Lat 132.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 935 km (505 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1040 km (560 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 1125 km (608 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1175 km (635 nm) East of Baler, Aurora
Distance 5: 1240 km (670 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
18-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 220 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap #03 (for Public): 12 PM PhT Sun Oct 24
16W is expected to continue moving WNW-ward slowly for the next 24 hours and then turn sharply Northward within 36 to 48 hours. This system will slowly gain strength and will become a Tropical Storm tomorrow morning, Monday [8AM OCT 25: 16.6N 131.3E @ 65kph...8PM OCT 25: 17.7N 130.8E @ 75kph...8AM OCT 26: 19.1N 130.5E @ 95kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: 16W at near-Typhoon strength as it recurves NNE-ward...about 905 km East of Itbayat, Batanes, PH [8AM OCT 27: 21.0N 130.5E @ 110kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it moves slowly NNE in the direction of sea south of Japan...about 975 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes, PH [8AM OCT 28: 22.9N 131.0E @ 110kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Exits the Philippines' Area of Forecasting Responsibility...about 390 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [8AM OCT 29: 25.4N 131.7E @ 110kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
16W's developing circulation remains broad but continues to slowly organize along the central part of the Philippine Sea. Below are the summary of the cyclone's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - None yet (click here to know more about CDO).
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - becoming better organized...remains circulating over the Philippine Sea. Light to moderate winds (<35 kph) can be expected over the area today. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
18-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the developing rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 220 mm (heavy) located along 16W's periphery [view current NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - None (click here to know more about storm surge).
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with isolated to scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Light to moderate SW, South, SE winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today. The prevailing strong La Niña conditions over the Pacific Ocean enhances the ITCZ to be more active across the Philippines.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 16W (KATRING)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1610.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
700 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS REMAINED QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING AROUND A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC). ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE
IS UNCERTAINTLY IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC IN A 232025Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE AND MSI. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 25 KNOTS DUE TO AN EARLIER 231248Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING 30 KNOT
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS INDUCING SUBSIDENCE
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, HINDERING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND CAUSING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...(more)
RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 18 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD 16W (KATRING)...go visit our website @:
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