for Tuesday, 19 October 2010 [7:35 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday Oct 19 2010):
Currently issuing 3-hrly Web & SMS updates (except 12mn) on MEGI (JUAN). Meanwhile, T2K have revised the EFFECTS AND HAZARDS section in this advisory - making it clear and concise to the readers.
MEGI (JUAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
TYPHOON MEGI [JUAN/15W/1013]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 021
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 19 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #026/SatFix/Recon
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon MEGI (JUAN) has regained back to Category 3...now moving northwesterly slowly over the South China Sea. Its Inner Rainbands continues to bring inclement weather across Western Luzon.
Residents and visitors along Western Luzon should closely monitor the progress of MEGI (JUAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs! PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue Oct 19 2010
Location of Eye: 16.8º N Lat 118.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 180 km (97 nm) WNW of Bolinao, Pangasinan
Distance 2: 225 km (122 nm) WNW of Sn.Fernando, La Union
Distance 3: 240 km (130 nm) WNW of Dagupan City
Distance 4: 250 km (135 nm) WSW of Vigan City
Distance 5: 260 km (140 nm) WNW of Baguio City
Distance 6: 395 km (213 nm) NW of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 730 km (395 nm) SE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Southern China (Hong Kong Area)
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 600 mm (Very Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 945 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 ft (10.3 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
T2K TrackMap #013 (for Public): 3 PM PhT Tue Oct 19
MEGI's ragged irregular eye has become larger and became cloud-filled during the past 3 hours...however the typhoon continues to exhibit a very large circulation (>890 km) due to warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) being enhanced by the existing La Niña Conditions. The typhoon is expected to continue moving WNW to NW-ward slowly towards the central portion of the South China Sea within the next two days. MEGI will eventually reach Category 4 once again on Thursday as it continues its journey towards Hong Kong [2PM OCT 20: 17.8N 116.4E @ 205kph...2PM OCT 21: 19.3N 115.2E @ 215kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 185 km/hr (100 knots) with higher gusts. MEGI is now a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional strengthening can still be expected tomorrow through Thursday - as the system moves across the South China Sea. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 280 kilometers (150 nautical miles). MEGI remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone, measuring 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Moving slowly NNW-ward...as it approaches the Hong Kong Harbor in Southern China...weakens to Category 3 [2PM OCT 22: 20.9N 114.6E @ 195kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over Hong Kong as a Category 2 typhoon [2PM OCT 23: 22.7N 114.0E @ 165kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it moves inland across Southern China (Western Guangdong) [2PM OCT 24: 23.9N 112.5E @ 75kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MEGI's very large convective circulation continues to cover the whole of Luzon including Palawan...Mindoro...Marinduque...Northern Bicol.
IRREGULAR, CLOUD-FILLED EYE - remains over water (South China Sea).
EASTERN EYEWALL - has moved away from Western Pangasinan. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) are no longer expected.
INNER RAINBANDS - slowly moving away from Western Luzon (Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Benguet, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Zambales, Pampanga, Bataan)...where Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) will prevail today.
OUTER RAINBANDS - still spreading across the whole of Luzon including Mindoro, Lubang Is, Calamian Group, Palawan, Marinduque, Romblon, Northern Bicol...where moderate to strong winds with passing rains and showers will continue to prevail today.
24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 600 mm (very heavy) near the center of MEGI...or over the South China Sea [view current NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...particularly along the coastal and beach front areas of Western Luzon today. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern & Western Luzon including Bicol Region today.
A new Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA/1011 MB) has been spotted to the ESE of Yap Island in the Caroline Islands. It was located near lat 10.5N lon 140.8E...or about 1,695 km east of the Visayas...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center...drifting west slowly. The 24 to 48-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system is at 40%. Click here to view current satellite image and flash animation.
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
In Effect: ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, PANGASINAN.
In Effect: METRO MANILA, ILOCOS NORTE, ABRA, MT. PROVINCE, BENGUET, TARLAC, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, BATAAN, CAVITE.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2, & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for TY MEGI (JUAN)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED AN EYE THAT HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND ENLARGED. THE SAME
ANIMATION DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK EYE FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES
WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY
15W IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH A
MESOCALE ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. IT IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR)TO THE NORTHEAST. TYPHOON MEGI HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT MORE
POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL CHINA. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF HONG
KONG NEAR TAU 96, THEN DEFLECT WESTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR
TO THE NORTH BUILDS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AND EGRR FAVORING A DRASTIC POLEWARD TUG TOWARDS
TAIWAN AND ECMWF FAVORING A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THIS FORECAST
IS TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS WITH BIAS TOWARDS ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION
STAYS WITH CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FAVORING A LESS INTENSE
POLEWARD MOTION ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS...(more)
>> MEGI, meaning: Catfish. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
RECENT TYPHOON2000 TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE & INFORMATION SERVICE
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MEGI (JUAN)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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