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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday Oct 26 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly SMS, web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TY CHABA (KATRING).
CHABA (KATRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON CHABA [KATRING/16W/1014]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 014
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 26 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #020/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon CHABA (KATRING) has slowed its NNW motion during the past 6 hours...a surge of cold air stratocumulus from Eastern China has started to penetrate into the typhoon's western spiral bands. If this cold surge continues, CHABA may start to decay earlier than forecasted.
Residents and visitors along Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the progress of CHABA.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue Oct 26 2010
Location of Developing Eye: 20.1º N Lat 128.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 690 km (372 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 715 km (387 nm) South of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 750 km (405 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 900 km (485 nm) SE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 130 kph (70 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph (85 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 500 mm (Very Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft (6.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K TrackMap #10 (for Public): 6 PM PhT Tue Oct 26
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
CHABA is expected to continue tracking NNW to Northward slowly within the next 24 hours before it starts to recurve towards the NE - in the direction of Okinawa-Ryukyus Area & Southern Japan on Thursday. This system will continue to intensify before it leaves the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and will reach its peak strength (Category 2) within the 2 day-forecast period. [2PM OCT 27: 22.0N 128.0E @ 150kph...2AM OCT 28: 23.2N 128.2E @ 160kph...2PM OCT 28: 24.4N 128.7E @ 160kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 130 km/hr (70 knots) with higher gusts. CHABA is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening is still expected tomorrow until Thursday. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles). CHABA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles).
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to decay after passing to the east of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...about 310 km ENE of Naha, Okinawa [2PM OCT 29: 27.5N 130.9E @ 140kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Begins Extratropical transition...weakens into a Tropical Storm as it accelerates towards the NE...about 270 km SSE of Kochi, Japan [2PM OCT 30: 31.4N 134.7E @ 110kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes Extratropical as it makes landfall near Tokyo...about 60 km ENE of Tokyo, Japan [2PM OCT 31: 35.9N 140.3E @ 85kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CHABA maintains a radial circulation with deep raincloud convection near its center and along the southern periphery. Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DEVELOPING EYE - remains at sea (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside this area (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - remains at sea (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER SPIRAL RAINBANDS - remains at sea (Philippine Sea)...not affecting land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected within these bands.
OUTER SPIRAL RAINBANDS - remains at sea (Philippine Sea)...not affecting land areas. Moderate to strong winds (<65 kph) can be expected within these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 500 mm (very heavy) near the center of CHABA [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - None (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with isolated to scattered afternoon or evening showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: THE WHOLE PHILIPPINES. Light to moderate NW, W, SW, South, SE winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected today. The prevailing strong La Niña conditions over the Pacific Ocean and the presence of Typhoon CHABA (KATRING) enhances the ITCZ to be more active across the Philippines.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY CHABA (KATRING)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1610.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), CURRENTLY LOCATED 400 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG A NARROW EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH OF NORTHWEST IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THIS FEATURE ERODES. COMPARISON OF 500 MB CHARTS
FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS INDICATE THAT THIS EXTENSION HAS YET TO
WEAKEN, VALIDATING THE PRESENT 6-HOUR MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST. COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS, ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING COLD SURGE OVER
EASTERN ASIAN WATERS, HAS BEGUN TO BUFFET THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE TYPHOON. A WEAK INFLUX OF STRATOCUMULUS IS SNAKING IN TOWARDS
THE CENTER OF THE TYPHOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS INDICATE THE SURGE HAS YET TO MODIFY THE
TROPICAL MARITIME AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH TY 16W. DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD RANGE FROM A T4.0 TO A T4.5. THE INITIAL FORECAST
INTENSITY REFLECTS THE NUMERICAL AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES. MORE
RECENTLY DEEP CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEPLETED OVER THE CENTER. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES THE NEXT FORECAST WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
ASSESSED AS A WEAKER SYSTEM INITIALLY, WHICH WOULD THEN REPLICATE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS STABILIZED SOME AS
GFDN AND WBAR HAVE COME IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE PACKING. BEYOND
TAU 48 NOGAPS AND GFDN DIVERGE WESTWARD FROM THE PACKING AND
ILLOGICALLY DRIVE THE TY INTO THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER
SASEBO. JGSM AND EGRR (BEYOND TAU 72) TRACK THE SYSTEM ESPECIALLY
SLOW, PERHAPS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE SURGE. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS STILL FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 96 AND COMPLETE BY
>> CHABA, meaning: Tropical flower (the shoeflower, genus hibiscus). Name contributed by: Thailand.
RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY CHABA (KATRING)...go visit our website @:
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