for Wednesday, 13 October 2010 [6:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Oct 13 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS 15W (UNNAMED) off the Northern Caroline Islands.
15W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM 15W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 13 October 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #002/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
15W (UNNAMED) upgraded to a Tropical Storm...moving very slowly westward. Interaction between the strong disturbance (LPA 91W) over the Philippine Sea continues.
Residents and visitors along Western Micronesia particularly Ulithi and Yap Islands should closely monitor the progress of 15W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed Oct 13 2010
Location of Center: 11.8º N Lat 140.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 380 km (205 nm) NE of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 480 km (260 nm) WSW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 620 km (335 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 1,665 km (898 nm) East of Borongan, E.Samar
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Northern Caroline Islands
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 230 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1 ft [0.3 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Wed Oct 13
15W's circulation continues to consolidate with developing rainbands on all quadrants. This system is currently having an interaction with the other strong disturbance, LPA 91W, located over the Philippine Sea. In the coming days, 15W is forecast to absorb the circulation of this LPA. The 2-day forecast outlook depicts TS 15W to continue moving slowly WNW-ward within the next 24 to 48 hours and will rapidly strengthen, becoming a Category 1 typhoon by early Friday morning. It will maintain its WNW motion, approaching the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday afternoon. [2PM OCT 14: 12.5N 139.2E @ 100kph...2AM OCT 15: 13.2N 137.9E @ 120kph...2PM OCT 15: 14.0N 136.5E @ 140kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are now near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. 15W will continue to intensify through Friday.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Still moving WNW across the Central Philippine Sea...within PAR. Attains Category 2 status [2PM OCT 16: 15.8N 132.8E @ 165kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Bending more to the west...threatens Extreme Northern Luzon...attains Category 3 status (Major Typhoon) [2PM OCT 17: 17.5N 129.0E @ 185kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching the east coast of Cagayan Province...winds almost 200 km/hr [2PM OCT 18: 18.3N 124.8E @ 195kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
15W's circulation continues to improve as it remains at sea. Its rainbands are not yet affecting any land areas. However, Yap and Ulithi Islands are expected to be under the system's western outer rainbands later tonight and tomorrow. Moderate to strong winds of up to 50 km/hr can be expected within the developing bands of 15W (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) near the center of 15W (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
Strong Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA/1006 MB) east of Samar still drifting across the Philippine Sea...maintains its convective features despite the threat of being absorbed into the rainbands of 15W in the coming days. The developing center of 91W was located near lat 12.5N lon 129.5E...or about 530 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center...drifting West slowly. The 48-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system remains at 60%. Click here to view current satellite image and the flash-loop animation.
External Links for TS 15W (UNNAMED)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1410.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (FIFTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTIPLE RECENT
MICROWAVE PASSES (130339Z AMSRE 89 GHZ AND 130442Z AMSU 89 GHZ) SHOW
TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO
THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (> 28
DEGREES C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TS 15W IS FORECAST TO
TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR), ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MAINLAND JAPAN, THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR TAU 36, A MID-
LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT AND REBUILD
WESTWARD ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE ALONG A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AFTER TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH AN AREA OF HIGHLY FAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OHC. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS...(more)
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS 15W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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