for Monday, 18 October 2010 [6:52 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday Oct 18 2010):
Currently issuing hourly web & SMS updates on MEGI (JUAN). The T2K HOURLY POSITION ESTIMATE (NOWCASTING) has started. Go to our mainpage.
MEGI (JUAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 225 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 245 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
TYPHOON MEGI [JUAN/15W/1013]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 018
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 18 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #022/SatFix/Recon
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon MEGI (JUAN) continues to lose strength as it interacts with the Cordillera Mountain Range...now moving away from Mountain Province...and into Ilocos Sur.
Residents and visitors along Northern and Central Luzon particularly Mountain Province, La Union and Ilocos Sur should closely monitor the progress of MEGI (JUAN).
**Metro Manila is currently experiencing rains and winds of not more than 55 km/hr...this is due to the typhoon's outer bands.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon Oct 18 2010
Location of Center: 17.0º N Lat 121.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 25 km (13 nm) West of Banaue Rice Terraces
Distance 2: 30 km (16 nm) East of Cervantes, Ilocos Sur
Distance 3: 75 km (40 nm) WNW of Cauayan, Isabela
Distance 4: 90 km (48 nm) WSW of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 5: 90 km (48 nm) SE of Vigan City
Distance 6: 80 km (43 nm) NNE of Baguio City
Distance 7: 85 km (45 nm) NE of Sn.Fernando, La Union
Distance 8: 100 km (55 nm) SW of Tuguegarao City
Distance 9: 125 km (67 nm) NNE of Dagupan City
Distance 10: 265 km (145 nm) North of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 215 kph (115 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (135 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Ilocos Sur
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 500 mm (Very Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 930 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): XX ft (XXX m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4.0-5.5 m]
T2K TrackMap #009 (for Public): 1 PM PhT Mon Oct 18
ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)*
MEGI's center continues to lose strength upon crossing the rugged terrains of Cordillera and Sierra Madre Mountains. The typhoon will pass just south of Vigan, Ilocos Sur in the next few hours...and will emerge into the South China Sea as a downgraded Category 2 typhoon by early tomorrow morning...and will start moving away from Luzon [2AM OCT 19: 17.0N 119.8E @ 165kph...2PM OCT 19: 16.9N 118.1E @ 185kph]. It will again reach Category 3 after exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) ony Wednesday [2AM OCT 20: 17.0N 116.9E @ 195kph...2PM OCT 20: 17.3N 115.8E @ 205kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 215 km/hr (115 knots) with higher gusts. MEGI is a Category 4 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 280 kilometers (150 nautical miles). MEGI is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Returns back to Category 4...and turns NW towards Western Guangdong in Southern China [2PM OCT 21: 18.1N 114.2E @ 215kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Inching closer to Western Guangdong but weakens to Category 3 [2PM OCT 22: 19.5N 112.8E @ 205kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON Makes landfall over Western Guangdong...290 km west of Hong Kong [2PM OCT 23: 21.4N 111.5E @ 185kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
MEGI's large circulation over Northern and Central Luzon. Its inner rainbands continues spreading across Northern Luzon...while the outer rainbands remain across Central Luzon and portions of Southern Tagalog Provinces including Metro Manila...Moderate to strong winds of up to 55 km/hr can be expected along the outer rainbands of MEGI. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds are prevailing across Northern Luzon, especially within 280 km from the typhoon. While, Typhoon Conditions are now occurring along Mountain Province, Ifugao, Eastern Ilocos Sur, and Southern Kalinga...and will arrive across Southern Abra, Rest of Ilocos Sur and Northern La Union later tonight (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 200 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands or across Northern Luzon today...with isolated amounts of up to 500 mm (very heavy) near the center of MEGI...especially areas along its track (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount). Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal and beach front areas of Northern Luzon particularly along Cagayan and Isabela today. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern & Western Luzon including Bicol Region today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) 
In Effect: CAGAYAN, ISABELA, APAYAO, KALINGA, IFUGAO, QUIRINO, NUEVA VISCAYA, BENGUET, MT. PROVINCE, ABRA, ILOCOS PROVINCES, & LA UNION
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, PANGASINAN, NUEVA ECIJA, AURORA, & TARLAC.
The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02...and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: METRO MANILA. ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, BATAAN, BULACAN, RIZAL, CAVITE, LAGUNA, NORTHERN QUEZON, POLILLO ISLAND, & BATANGAS.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2, & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for STY MEGI (JUAN)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MEGI HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON
STRENGTH AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE PEAKS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAIN RANGE (AVERAGE ELEVATION 5,900 FEET) OF ISABELLA PROVINCE,
LUZON. THE SYSTEM CAME ASHORE AROUND 0330Z NEAR DIVILACAN BAY AND
HAS TRACKED SOUTH OF WEST WHILE WEAKENING. THE EYE HAS FILLED, BUT
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE SHEDS FAIR
CONFIDENCE ON THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY GIVEN THE LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FROM THE PHILIPPINES. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD ARE
LIKELY UNREPRESENATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF
LAND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT WILL ENTER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A VERY STRONG SYSTEM AND WILL STEADILY RE-
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AROUND DAY 4 OF THE FORECAST
THE STEERING RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND PROMOTE A MORE NORTH OF WEST
TRACK. AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD MODERATE
INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THIS FORECAST LIES ON THE ECMWF SIDE OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH TO DATE HAS PERFORMED THE BEST OF THE
CONSENSUS MEMBERS. GFS AND WBAR REMAIN NORTHERN OUTLIERS, RESOLVING
UNREALISTIC TRACKS...(more)
>> MEGI, meaning: Catfish. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
RECENT TYPHOON2000 TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on STY MEGI (JUAN)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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