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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Oct 23 2010):
Ending the 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TS MEGI (JUAN).
MEGI (JUAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
TYPHOON MEGI [JUAN/15W/1013]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 033 **FINAL**
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 23 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #042/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MEGI (JUAN) now quickly dissipating over land (Fujian Province, China)...just a Tropical Storm. Overnight rains from its decaying rainbands can be expected along Southeastern China.
This is the Final Advisory on this year's strongest typhoon.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat Oct 23 2010
Location of Center 24.4º N Lat 117.9º E Lon
Distance 1:25 km (13 nm) SW of Xiamen, China
Distance 2: 165 km (90 nm) NE of Shantou, China
Distance 3: 315 km (170 nm) NW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 4: 450 km (243 nm) NE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Fujian-Jiangxi Area
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 60 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): XX ft (X.X m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Sat Oct 23
MEGI will quickly dissipate along the rugged terrain of Fujian Province tonight and will be just an area of low pressure decaying while moving northward across Mainland China tomorrow afternoon [2AM OCT 24: 25.2N 117.6E @ 55kph...2PM OCT 24: 26.2N 117.8E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 140 kilometers (75 nautical miles) from the center. MEGI is a shrinking average-sized tropical cyclone, measuring about 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles) across.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
MEGI's convective rainclouds are continuously decaying. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - Off Southern Fujian...about 25 km SW of Xiamen City.
INNER RAINBANDS - continuing to affect most parts of Southern Fujian and portions of Eastern Guangdong. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-85 kph) can be expected along these areas tonight.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting the Chinese provinces of Eastern Guangdong, Fujian, and Jiangxi. Moderate to strong winds (<65 kph) with passing on-and-off showers, squalls or thunderstorms can be expected along these areas today.
24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 40 mm (light rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 60 mm (moderate) near the center of MEGI [view current NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Fujian Province in China today. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from large swells and Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern & Southeastern China and Taiwan today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS MEGI (JUAN)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MEGI), HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KTS AND MADE LANDFALL NEAR XIAMEN, CHINA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
HAS DISSIPATED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR ANIMATION FROM
TAIPEI, TAIWAN. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF 55 KNOTS FROM RJTD. TS MEGI IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT
DRAGS NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA'S RUGGED TERRAIN THEN DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS
>> MEGI, meaning: Catfish. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE & INFORMATION SERVICE
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 18 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS MEGI (JUAN)...go visit our website @:
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