for Thursday, 14 October 2010 [7:30 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Oct 13 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MEGI (14W) off the Northern Caroline Islands.
MEGI (14W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM MEGI [14W/1013]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thu 14 October 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #004/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Storm 15W rapidly gaining strength while drifting westward towards the Northern Caroline Islands...now internationally named MEGI - a korean word for a Catfish.
Residents and visitors along Western Micronesia particularly Ulithi and Yap Islands should closely monitor the progress of MEGI.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu Oct 14 2010
Location of Center: 11.9º N Lat 140.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 345 km (185 nm) NE of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 535 km (290 nm) WSW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 555 km (300 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 1,590 km (860 nm) East of Samar, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Northern Caroline Islands
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 450 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Thu Oct 14
MEGI's circulation rapidly improved overnight with the formation of a banding eye. The storm is expected to move generally WNW for the next 2 days...becoming a Category 1 typhoon later today and will start accelerating. MEGI will be upgraded to Category 2 tomorrow afternoon, then eventually reaching Category 3 (Major Typhoon) upon entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early Saturday morning. [2AM OCT 15: 12.6N 138.8E @ 140kph...2PM OCT 15: 13.5N 137.2E @ 175kph...2AM OCT 16: 14.5N 135.0E @ 195kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. MEGI will continue to rapidly intensify through Saturday. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center. MEGI is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles) across.
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Still intensifying while moving across the central portion of the Philippine Sea...approaching Category 4 strength [2AM OCT 17: 16.1N 131.0E @ 205kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Bending more Westerly towards Northern Luzon...attains Category 4 status [2AM OCT 18: 17.0N 126.7E @ 220kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Off the east coast of Isabela or near Palanan Bay...preparing to cross Northern Luzon [2AM OCT 19: 17.1N 122.8E @ 220kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MEGI's circulation has become more compact. Its rainbands are not yet affecting any major land areas. However, Yap and Ulithi Islands are expected to be under the system's western and southwestern outer rainbands today. Moderate winds of 15 to 25 km/hr can be expected along Yap and Ulithi Islands (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 450 mm (heavy) near the center of MEGI, especially along the northern portion (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA/1006 MB) east of Samar has weakened due to its interaction with the much stronger MEGI. Its remaining convective showers will be completely absorbed into MEGI's circulation within 24 to 48 hours. The ill-defined center of 91W was relocated near lat 10.8N lon 132.2E...or about 745 km ESE of Borongan, Eastern Samar...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...drifting ESE slowly. The 48-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system is now at 20% (Low Chance). Click here to view current satellite image and the flash-loop animation.
External Links for TS MEGI (15W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MEGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP FLARING
CONVECTION AND TIGHT FORMATIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND IS DEVELOPING AN
OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO
THE EAST. A 131554Z AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING FORMING TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, THE STR
WILL REORIENT AND ALLOW TS 15W TO BEGIN TRACKING IN A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION (TAU 12 THROUGH 48). DURING THIS PERIOD,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED INTO THE DIFFLUENT
REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS, COUPLED WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE AIR COLUMN,
AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT, WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI). AFTER TAU 48, THE STR IS
EXPECTED RE-BUILD TO THE NORTH AND THE SYSTEM WILL RESUME TRACKING
WESTWARD. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT.
ADDITIONALLY, MODELS THAT GENERALLY HANDLE RI (GFDN AND COAMPS) ARE
SHOWING SOME RI SIGNALS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...(more)
>> MEGI, meaning: Catfish. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MEGI (15W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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