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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Oct 29 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TY CHABA (KATRING).
CHABA (KATRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON CHABA [KATRING/16W/1014]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 022
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 29 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #031/SatFixes/Radar
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon CHABA (KATRING) continues to lose strength as it starts decaying while over the sea south of Japan...downgraded to Category 2.
Residents and visitors along Southern Honshu should closely monitor the progress of CHABA.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri Oct 29 2010
Location of Center: 27.8º N Lat 132.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 250 km (135 nm) ESE of Naje Is., Japan
Distance 2: 440 km (238 nm) ENE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 650 km (350 nm) SSW of Kochi, Japan
Distance 4: 1130 km (610 nm) SW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph (95 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph (115 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Southern Coast of Honshu
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 120 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 815 km (440 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 29 ft (8.8 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Fri Oct 29
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
CHABA is expected to continue tracking NE-ward in the direction of the Southern Coast of Honshu for the next 2 days. It will continue losing strength as it begins Extratropical transition soon. On Saturday night, CHABA will become Extratropical and will pass close to the coast of Southern Honshu...about more or less 150 km SSE of Tokyo between 9-11 PM Japan Time (12-14 GMT) [8AM OCT 30: 31.5N 136.1E @ 110kph...8PM OCT 30: 34.1N 139.8E @ 95kph...8AM OCT 31: 36.9N 144.9E @ 65kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 175 km/hr (95 knots) with higher gusts. CHABA is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to decay and lose strength throughout the forecast period. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 340 kilometers (185 nautical miles). CHABA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 815 kilometers (440 nautical miles).
MONDAY MORNING: Speeds up NE-ward - across the cooler waters of the NW Pacific Ocean...about 910 km South of Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia [8AM NOV 01: 42.7N 157.0E @ 65kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CHABA circulation continues to decay as it moves into an area of strong upper-level winds (aka. Increased Vertical Wind Shear). Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - remains at sea (south of Japan)...not affecting land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - remains at sea (south of Japan)...not affecting land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER SPIRAL RAINBANDS - affecting some portions of Ryukyu Islands including Naje Is. and will spread across the southern coast of Honshu beginning Saturday morning. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER SPIRAL RAINBANDS - affecting Okinawa, where moderate to strong winds (<65 kph) can be expected along these bands today. Later today, Okinawa will be experiencing improved weather conditions as the typhoon moves farther away. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 120 mm (moderate) near the center of CHABA [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands today...and across the southern coastlines of Japan beginning today until tomorrow. Minimal to moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Southern Japan and Eastern Taiwan. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT NORTHEAST MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing showers or rains can be expected along these following affected areas: NORTHERN & EASTERN LUZON, BICOL REGION. Lower temperatures (less than 30 degrees celsius) with cooler light to moderate North and NE winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: VISAYAS, MASBATE, PALAWAN & MINDANAO. Light to moderate NW, SE to variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY CHABA (KATRING)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1610.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 282201 SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND LOSS OF THE
EYE WITHIN THE LAST 12 HOURS. STRATOCUMULOUS CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE
AND A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT DEPICTS OVERALL DECREASING
MOISTURE CONTENT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A PGTW FIX AND
RADAR FIX FROM JAPAN WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO
102 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 35 KNOTS) AND MARGINAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 DEGREES CELSIUS). TY 16W CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. TY CHABA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED
SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN...(more)
>> CHABA, meaning: Tropical flower (the shoeflower, genus hibiscus). Name contributed by: Thailand.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY CHABA (KATRING)...go visit our website @:
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