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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Oct 23 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 16W.
16W (Pre-KATRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 30 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W [Pre-KATRING]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sat 23 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #007/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 16W (Pre-KATRING) has entered the Philippine Area of Resposnsibility (PAR)...heading West across the Philippine Sea...not yet a threat to the Philippines.
Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 16W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, rains & frequent thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Light to moderate SW, South, SE winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today. The prevailing strong La Niña conditions over the Pacific Ocean enhances the ITCZ to be more active across the Philippines.
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sat Oct 23 2010
Location of Ill-Defined Center: 16.1º N Lat 134.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 1265 km (683 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 2: 1345 km (725 nm) East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 1380 km (745 nm) ESE of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 4: 1465 km (790 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
6-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 230 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunde TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Sat Oct 23
16W is expected to track westward for the next 24 hours and slowly intensify. This system will reach minimal Tropical Storm status late tomorrow, and shall start to turn WNW to NW slowly across the Philippine Sea by Monday [8AM OCT 24: 16.4N 132.8E @ 55kph...8PM OCT 24: 16.8N 131.9E @ 65kph...8AM OCT 25: 17.3N 131.2E @ 75kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts.
TUESDAY MORNING: Becoming a strong Tropical Storm as it turns northward slowly...about 920 km East of Aparri, Cagayan, PH [8AM OCT 26: 18.6N 130.4E @ 100kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Continuing crawling northward over open waters of the Philippine Sea...about 855 km east of Basco, Batanes, PH [8AM OCT 27: 20.5N 130.2E @ 110kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Attains Typhoon status (Category 1) as it moves slowly northward in the direction of Ryukyu Islands...about 890 km ENE of Basco, Batanes, PH [8AM OCT 28: 23.0N 130.2E @ 130kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
16W's developing circulation remains sheared-off, with most of its rain-cloud convection located about 150 km to the south & SW of its low-level center. Below are the summary of the cyclone's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - None (click here to know more about CDO).
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - still weak and disorganized...the southern and SW portion affecting the micronesian islands of Yap, Ulithi and Palau. Light to moderate winds (<35 kph) can be expected today. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
6-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the developing rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) located along 16W's periphery [view current NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - None (click here to know more about storm surge).
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, rains & frequent thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Light to moderate SW, South, SE winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today. The prevailing strong La Niña conditions over the Pacific Ocean enhances the ITCZ to be more active across the Philippines.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 16W (UNNAMED)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1610.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
222139Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON RJTD AND PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH INDUCED
BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)...(more)
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD 16W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
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