for Friday, 29 October 2010 [6:55 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Oct 29 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TY CHABA (KATRING).
CHABA (KATRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON CHABA [KATRING/16W/1014]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 021
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Fri 29 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #029/SatFixes/Radar
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon CHABA (KATRING) downgraded to Category 3 as it moves away from Ryukyus...now moving closer towards the southern shores of Honshu.
Residents and visitors along Southern Honshu should closely monitor the progress of CHABA.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri Oct 29 2010
Location of Center: 27.3º N Lat 131.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 215 km (115 nm) SE of Naje Is., Japan
Distance 2: 350 km (190 nm) ENE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 720 km (388 nm) SSW of Kochi, Japan
Distance 4: 1220 km (660 nm) SW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (140 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Southern Coast of Honshu
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 815 km (440 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 ft (9.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Fri Oct 29
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
CHABA is expected to continue tracking NE-ward in the direction of the Southern Coast of Honshu for the next 2 days. It will continue losing strength as it begins Extratropical transition. On Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning, CHABA becomes Extratropical as it moves near the coastline of Southern Honshu - passing more or less 150 km south of Tokyo by late Saturday night [2AM OCT 30: 30.4N 134.6E @ 130kph...2PM OCT 30: 32.8N 137.5E @ 100kph...2AM OCT 31: 35.6N 142.0E @ 65kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 195 km/hr (105 knots) with higher gusts. CHABA is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to decay and lose strength. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 350 kilometers (190 nautical miles). CHABA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 815 kilometers (440 nautical miles). 
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Speeding up towards the NW Pacific Ocean...about 615 km South of the Kuril Island Chain [2AM NOV 01: 41.4N 153.6E @ 65kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CHABA circulation has started to erode and deteriorate as it moves into an area of strong upper-level winds (aka. Vertical Wind Shear). Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CLOUD-FILLED EYE - remains at sea (south of Japan)...not affecting land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - remains at sea (south of Japan)...not affecting land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER SPIRAL RAINBANDS - affecting some portions of Ryukyu Islands including Naje Is. and will spread across the southern coast of Honshu beginning Saturday afternoon. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER SPIRAL RAINBANDS - affecting Okinawa, where moderate to strong winds (<65 kph) can be expected along these bands today. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) near the center of CHABA [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic]. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands today...and across the southern coastlines of Japan beginning today until Sunday. Minimal to extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Japan and Eastern Taiwan. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT NORTHEAST MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing showers or rains can be expected along these following affected areas: NORTHERN & EASTERN LUZON, BICOL REGION. Lower temperatures (less than 30 degrees celsius) with cooler light to moderate North and NE winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: VISAYAS, MASBATE, PALAWAN & MINDANAO. Light to moderate NW, SE to variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY CHABA (KATRING)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1610.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
281646Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE LOSS OF AN EYE WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A PGTW FIX AND RADAR FIX FROM JAPAN
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND
KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 35 KNOTS) AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (26 DEGREES CELSIUS). TY 16W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TY 16W WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO
DECEASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. WITHIN 12 HOURS, TY CHABA IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. BY TAU 36, TY 16W SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, JUST SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN, AND FULLY TRANSITION
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS...(more)
>> CHABA, meaning: Tropical flower (the shoeflower, genus hibiscus). Name contributed by: Thailand.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY CHABA (KATRING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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