for Friday, 22 October 2010 [6:45 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Oct 22 2010):
Just updated the FLASH ANIMATION for MEGI...now at 62 hours! Meanwhile, T2K continues to issue 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TY MEGI (JUAN). TDs 16W is now available...while 17W anytime this afternoon.
MEGI (JUAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
TYPHOON MEGI [JUAN/15W/1013]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 030
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 22 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #038/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MEGI (JUAN) has been downgraded into a Category 2 Typhoon while maintaining its northward track closer to Southeastern China.
Residents and visitors along Southern & Southeastern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of MEGI (JUAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri Oct 22 2010
Location of Cloud-Filled Eye: 22.0º N Lat 118.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 195 km (105 nm) WSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 240 km (130 nm) SE of Shantou, China
Distance 3: 280 km (150 nm) South of Xiamen, China
Distance 4: 400 km (217 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 445 km (240 nm) ESE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph (95 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph (115 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Southeastern China (Guangdong-Fujian Border)
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 180 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 960 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 31 ft (9.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Fri Oct 22
MEGI will continue to decay until it makes landfall over Southeastern China tomorrow afternoon. Its track will remain northward throughout the forecast period. This system will be downgraded to a tropical storm while making landfall in Eastern Guangdong or Southern Fujian Area...and will quickly dissipate as it moves inland through Sunday [2PM OCT 23: 24.1N 118.3E @ 130kph...2AM OCT 23: 25.4N 118.0E @ 95kph...2PM OCT 24: 27.1N 118.2E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 175 km/hr (95 knots) with higher gusts. MEGI is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 270 kilometers (145 nautical miles). MEGI is an average/large-sized tropical cyclone, measuring about 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles) across.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
MEGI's convective circulation has started to erode as it approaches an area of unfavorable environment (increasing upper-level winds) located along the coast of Southeastern China. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: 
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - remains over water (South China Sea), but it is forecast to make landfall very near Xiamen City tomorrow Saturday afternoon (Oct 23)...between 4 to 5 PM Beijing Time. EYEWALL - remains over water (South China Sea), but the northern eyewall will reach coast of Southeastern China particularly from Quanzhou down to Shantou City by tomorrow, Saturday afternoon (Oct 23). INNER RAINBANDS - will move across the shorelines/coastal areas of Eastern Guangdong and Fujian provinces tonight. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these areas. OUTER RAINBANDS - currently spreading across some portions of Taiwan, Inland areas of Southern and Southeastern China. Moderate to strong winds (<65 kph) with passing on-and-off showers, squalls or thunderstorms can be expected along these areas today. 24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 85 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 180 mm (moderate) near the center of MEGI [view current NOAA's eTRaP graphic]. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Western Taiwan...and in Eastern Guangdong and Fujian Provinces in China today until tomorrow. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from large swells and Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern China and Northernwestern Luzon in the Philippines today.
CURRENT ENHANCED SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms especially in the afrernoon or evening can be expected along these following affected areas: SOUTHWESTERN LUZON INCLUDING METRO MANILA, MINDORO, PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS, PARTS OF BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW, South winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY MEGI (JUAN)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY
MEGI HAS WEAKENED 10 KNOTS SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 95 KNOTS.
DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO A 5.0/5.5 FROM PGTW. THE EYE HAS
BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AND CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO ERODE ON THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE TYPHOON. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
NEAR THE TERMINUS OF A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY RUNNING ALONG 23N.
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS MINIMAL ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY IN VIEW OF 500
MB HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL FROM AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEST. A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
LOCATED LESS THAN 5 DEGREES UPSTREAM, WILL PULL THE SYSTEM JUST EAST
OF NORTH ONCE IS MAKES LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL AT AROUND 70 KNOTS THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER CHINA. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS METHOD OF
DISSIPATION OVER CHINA. THE FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...(more)
>> MEGI, meaning: Catfish. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE & INFORMATION SERVICE
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MEGI (JUAN)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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