for Tuesday, 05 October 2010 [6:33 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday Oct 05 2010):
Now starting the 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD 14W (UNNAMED).
14W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 05 October 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #002/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 14W (UNNAMED) has emerged along the northern coast of Hainan...heading north towards Western Guangdong.
Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Western Guangdong should closely monitor the progress of 14W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 24 hours)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue Oct 05 2010
Location of Center: 20.4º N Lat 109.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 105 km (57 nm) NNW of Danzhou, Hainan
Distance 2: 110 km (60 nm) WNW of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 3: 160 km (85 nm) SW of Zhanjiang, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Western Guangdong
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 250 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 9 ft (2.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Tue Oct 05
14W is expected to gradually slow down as it lingers off the Gulf of Tonkin for the next 24 to 48 hours. The system will dissipate along the Xuwen district in Western Guangdong or just to the north of Haikou City in Hainan Island on Thursday afternoon [2PM OCT 06: 20.1N 109.6E @ 55kph...2PM OCT 07: 20.2N 110.2E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts...slow weakening is expected through the next 2 days as unfavorable upper-level winds (aka. vertical wind shear) and land interaction affects 14W.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
14W will continue to bring bad weather across Hainan Island...the Gulf of Tonkin...and Western Guangdong. Moderate to strong winds of up to 50 km/hr can be expected overnight (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 180 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands or over the Island of Hainan and the Gulf of Tonkin...with isolated amounts of up to 250 mm (heavy) near the center of 14W (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 14W (UNNAMED)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1410.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A WEAKENING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY, RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND CMA RADAR
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON A
050255Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING NUMEROUS 30 KNOT VECTORS OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ZJHK, EAST OF THE
SYSTEM, INDICATE 090/20 KNOTS. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE FROM THE FIRST WARNING WITH SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. TD 14W IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING DUE TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS) AND LAND INTERACTION. VWS
IS STRONG TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DUE TO MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH A 1021 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN
CHINA, AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OF 40-50 KNOTS OVER SOUTHEAST
CHINA AS INDICATED ON THE LATEST 200/300MB ANALYSES. THEREFORE, TD
14W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD UNDER A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 48 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN
TAU 36 AND 48. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY
WEAKEN EARLIER AND EITHER REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OR DRIFT
WESTWARD DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS/GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS FORECAST WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WBAR, WHICH ACCELERATES THE SYSTEM TOWARD HONG KONG
INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL RIDGE/STRONG VWS...(more)
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 14W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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