for Friday, 22 October 2010 [7:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Oct 22 2010):
Now issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 16W.
MEGI (JUAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 30 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W [Pre-KATRING]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 22 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #004/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 16W (Pre-KATRING) has been tracking WSW during the past 6 hours...remains weak and disorganized. May enter the Philippine Area of Responsbility (PAR) late tomorrow afternoon.
Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 16W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT ENHANCED SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms especially in the afrernoon or evening can be expected along these following affected areas: SOUTHWESTERN LUZON INCLUDING METRO MANILA, MINDORO, PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS, PARTS OF BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW, South winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today.
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri Oct 22 2010
Location of Ill-Defined Center: 16.8º N Lat 137.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 310 km (168 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 830 km (440 nm) NW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 1710 km (923 nm) ESE of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 4: 1615 km (872 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 250 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunde TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Fri Oct 22
16W is expected to track westward for the next 24 to 48 hours and shall become a Tropical Storm after entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening [2PM OCT 23: 16.8N 135.5E @ 55kph...2AM OCT 24: 16.9N 134.2E @ 65kph...2PM OCT 24: 17.1N 133.0E @ 75kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. 
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Turning gradually NW to NNW while moving across the Philippine Sea...about 1035 km east of Aparri, Cagayan [2PM OCT 25: 18.1N 131.5E @ 85kph]. TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Starts recurving slowly towards the north while over the Northern Philippine Sea...about 915 km ESE of Basco, Batanes...continues to intensify [2PM OCT 26: 19.6N 130.7E @ 100kph]. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Near Typhoon strength as it continues to drift northward...about 875 km East of Basco, Batanes [2PM OCT 27: 21.4N 130.4E @ 110kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
16W's developing circulation remains partially exposed, with its rain-cloud convection located south of its center. Below are the summary of the cyclone's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - None. DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - still weak and disorganized. 24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the developing rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 250 mm (heavy) near the center of 16W [view current NOAA's eTRaP graphic]. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - None.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 16W (Unnamed)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1610.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM NORTH OF
YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HAS DEEPENED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM AND HAS STALLED ORGRANIZATION WHILE DAMPENING DEEP
CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LESS OBVIOUS
IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SIX HOURS AGO. HOWEVER, A
222151Z SSMIS 37H MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT A LLCC PERISTS TO
THE NORTH OF RAPIDLY DISSOLVING CENTRAL CONVECTION. IT ALSO APPEARS
THAT THE LLCC MAY BE BROADENING, WHICH WOULD IMPLY SHORT TERM
WEAKENING. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE, BUT ONCE
THEY DO IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL MODESTLY INTENSIFY
TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, ASSUMING THE LLCC DOES NOT DISSIPATE ALL
TOGETHER. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED WITH NEARLY ALL THE TRACKERS
SUGGESTING RECURVATURE TOWARDS THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AROUND TAU 72. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHARPENED POLEWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG
THE MODELS...(more)
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 16W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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