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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Oct 23 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 16W.
MEGI (JUAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 30 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W [Pre-KATRING]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 23 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #006/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 16W (Pre-KATRING) still moving westward into the Philippine Sea...will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) today.
Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 16W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat Oct 23 2010
Location of Ill-Defined Center: 17.2º N Lat 136.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 125 km (68 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 1015 km (548 nm) NW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 1450 km (785 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 1530 km (827 nm) East of Ilagan, Isabela
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
12-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 230 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunde TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sat Oct 23
16W is expected to track westward for the next 24 hours...slowly intensifying and will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later this afternoon. The system will attain Tropical Storm strength tomorrow Sunday afternoon and begin to turn WNW slowly across the Philippine Sea by early Monday morning [2AM OCT 24: 17.3N 133.8E @ 55kph...2PM OCT 24: 17.6N 132.9E @ 65kph...2AM OCT 25: 18.1N 132.0E @ 75kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns more to the north slowly while over the northern part of the Philippine Sea...about 995 km East of Calayan Is., Cagayan, PH [2AM OCT 26: 19.2N 131.0E @ 100kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Continuing crawling northward over open seas...about 905 km east of Itbayat, Batanes, PH...almost a Typhoon [2AM OCT 27: 21.0N 130.5E @ 110kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Attains Typhoon status (Category 1) as it drifts northward towards the Ryukyu Islands...about 940 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes, PH [2PM OCT 27: 21.4N 130.4E @ 110kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
16W's developing circulation remains sheared-off, with most of its rain-cloud convection located about 150 km to the south & SW of its low-level center. Below are the summary of the cyclone's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - None (click here to know more about CDO).
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - still weak and disorganized, sheared to the SW or over the Philippine Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the developing rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) located along 16W's periphery [view current NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - None (click here to know more about storm surge).
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, rains & frequent thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Light to moderate SW, South, SE winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today. The prevailing strong La Niña conditions enhances ITCZs to be more active across the Philippines.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 16W (Unnamed)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1610.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION
SHEARED 80NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH WAS
BASED ON AN UNORGANIZED LLCC DEPICTED IN A 221723Z AMSU MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE
INDUCED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL. TD 16W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU
48, AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR
AND CAUSE TD 16W TO TRACK POLEWARD. AS THE TUTT CELL CONTINUES TO
MOVE WESTWARD AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE CONSEQUENTLY
RELAX, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO CONSISTENTLY INTENSIFY.
ADDITIONALLY, POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
INCREASE BY TAU 72 AND INCREASE THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. THERE IS
SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH NOGAPS, GFS, AND ECMWF TRACKING THE SYSTEM
MORE POLEWARD DUE TO A DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE GFDN AND JGSM
MODELS CONTINUE TRACKING TD 16W WESTWARD ALONG A STRONGER STR. THIS
FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS TRACKING MORE POLEWARD
GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF A DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...(more)
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD 16W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
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