for Friday, 15 October 2010 [6:15 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Oct 15 2010):
Please be informed that our 6-hourly SMS (Text) Storm Updates will begin once the typhoon enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Meanwhile, the 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on MEGI (15W) will continue.
MEGI (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
TYPHOON MEGI [15W/1013]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 15 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #010/SatFix/Recon
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon MEGI (15W) maintains its strength as it turns slightly northwestward...will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight. A US Air Force C-130 Aircraft Reconnaissance flight (part of the ITOP Team) is schedule to fly out from Guam at 3:00 AM local time (19:00 GMT) tomorrow morning to investigate MEGI.
Residents and visitors along Luzon particularly the Northern and Eastern Coastlines should closely monitor the progress of MEGI.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri Oct 15 2010
Location of Center: 15.3º N Lat 136.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 105 km (57 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 1,260 km (680 nm) ENE of Bicol Region
Distance 3: 1,490 km (805 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1,600 km (865 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 400 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft (6.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Fri Oct 15
MEGI's structure continues to expand...its eye has become cloud-filled during its last satellite passage. The storm is expected to resume moving WNW for the next 36 hours before it bends westward through 48 hours. It will become a Major Typhoon (Category 3) after entering PAR late tonight...and further strengthening to Category 4 by tomorrow afternoon [2AM OCT 16: 16.3N 134.6E @ 185kph...2PM OCT 16: 17.5N 132.4E @ 215kph]. By Sunday afternoon, MEGI is forecast to move dangerously towards Northeastern Luzon particularly Cagayan and Isabela - as the high pressure ridge to its north rebuilds and pushes the typhoon. It will then be a Super Typhoon with sustained winds of 250 km/hr during that time [2PM OCT 17: 18.6N 127.5E @ 250kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 165 km/hr (90 knots) with higher gusts. MEGI is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...continued strengthening is expected through Sunday. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles). MEGI is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 590 kilometers (320 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: MEGI maintains Super Typhoon status, but a little weaker...just off the coast of Cagayan and Isabela...moving WSW. Storm Surge (big waves) affecting the eastern coast of Luzon...Tropical Storm and Typhoon Conditions begin across Northern Luzon [2PM OCT 18: 18.2N 123.5E @ 240kph]. Projected Landfall Area (Time): Over Eastern Cagayan...about 70 km NE of Tuguegarao City on Monday evening (approx 9:00 PM).
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Well over the South China Sea after traversing Northern Luzon...downgraded to Category 1 [2PM OCT 19: 17.1N 119.1E @ 150kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Regains Category 2 status while over the South China Sea...heading towards Hainan Island and Northern Vietnam [2PM OCT 20: 17.1N 115.6E @ 160kph].
Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that MEGI will track west-northwest towards Batanes and Taiwan -- if the rebuilding of the High Pressure Ridge north of the typhoon will not happen.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MEGI's radial circulation and its rainbands remain at sea and are not yet affecting any major land areas at this time (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (heavy) near the center of MEGI, especially along the northern portion (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
External Links for TY MEGI (15W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 910 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW WITH
IMPROVED OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. TY 15W HAS
CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TOWARD A WEAKNESS POSITIONED
JUST SOUTH OF OKINAWA. THE 15/00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW A MAJOR
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN ASIA WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 128E. THE STR HAS REMAINED STRONG AND EXTENDS FROM A HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 24N 133E WESTWARD TO 130E. THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO TURN MORE WESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN
LUZON. TY 15W SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72 AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH SUPER TYPHOON
STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON. MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING
UKMO, JGSM, ECMWF AND GFS (AS WELL AS ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS), IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THE ONLY OUTLIERS ARE NOGAPS, WBAR
AND GFDN WHICH INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS POSITIONED SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS
TO OFFSET THESE OUTLIERS...(more)
>> MEGI, meaning: Catfish. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MEGI (15W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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