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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Oct 29 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TY CHABA (KATRING).
CHABA (KATRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 115 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON CHABA [KATRING/16W/1014]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 024
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 30 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #034/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon CHABA (KATRING) downgraded to Category 1 as it moves faster towards the northeast...will become Extratropical later today. Outer rainbands affecting the coastal areas of Southern Honshu.
Residents and visitors along Southern Honshu should closely monitor the progress of CHABA.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat Oct 30 2010
Location of Center: 31.6º N Lat 137.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 375 km (203 nm) SSE of Osaka, Japan
Distance 2: 400 km (215 nm) South of Nagoya, Japan
Distance 3: 515 km (278 nm) SW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 41 kph (22 kts)
Towards: Southern Coast of Honshu
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 150 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 AM JST Sat Oct 30
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*
CHABA will continue to track NE to ENE across the sea south of Japan and will complete Extratropical transition later today. This cyclone will pass more or less 200 km South of Tokyo this afternoon 3-6 PM Japan Time (06-09 GMT) [2PM OCT 30: 33.2N 139.3E @ 110kph...2AM OCT 31: 36.4N 144.1E @ 85kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 140 km/hr (75 knots) with higher gusts. CHABA is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles). CHABA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers (480 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CHABA's circulation continues to decay as it moves over an area of unfavorable environment. Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - breaking down as it remains at sea (south of Japan)...not affecting land areas. (click here to know more about CDO).
WEAKENING EYEWALL - remains at sea (south of Japan)...not affecting land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
NORTHERN SPIRAL RAINBANDS - spreading across Southern Honshu, where Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 150 mm (moderate) near the center of CHABA [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Southern Japan today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT NORTHEAST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing showers to widespread rains can be expected along these following affected areas: NORTHERN & EASTERN LUZON, BICOL REGION. Lower temperatures (less than 30 degrees celsius) with cooler light to moderate NE winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today.
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: VISAYAS, MASBATE, PALAWAN & MINDANAO. Light to moderate East, SE to variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY CHABA (KATRING)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1610.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 291745Z AMSU IMAGE
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DE-COUPLING
WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER DUE TO STRONG (50+ KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED SOUTH OF HONSHU. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AMSU IMAGE, DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD, AND RADAR FIXES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. TY
CHABA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 12. THIS FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER THAN MODEL
>> CHABA, meaning: Tropical flower (the shoeflower, genus hibiscus). Name contributed by: Thailand.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY CHABA (KATRING)...go visit our website @:
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