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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Oct 29 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TY CHABA (KATRING).
CHABA (KATRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON CHABA [KATRING/16W/1014]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 023
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 29 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #032/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon CHABA (KATRING) picking up forward speed as it continues losing strength...outer rainbands spreading across the Southern Coast of Japan.
Residents and visitors along Southern Honshu should closely monitor the progress of CHABA.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri Oct 29 2010
Location of Center: 28.8º N Lat 133.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 390 km (210 nm) East of Naje Is., Japan
Distance 2: 535 km (290 nm) South of Kochi, Japan
Distance 3: 625 km (337 nm) ENE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 945 km (510 nm) SW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Towards: Southern Coast of Honshu
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 150 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 815 km (440 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Fri Oct 29
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)*
CHABA is expected to maintain its NE to ENE track towards the Southern Coast of Honshu for the next 2 days. It will continue losing strength as it begins Extratropical transition tonight. On Saturday night, CHABA will reach Extratropical status as it passes near the coast of Southern Honshu...about more or less 150 km SSE of Tokyo between 8-11 PM Japan Time (11-14 GMT)...and will move more rapidly @ 35 kph into the deep cooler waters of the Northwest Pacific Ocean on Sunday afternoon [2PM OCT 30: 33.0N 138.1E @ 110kph...2AM OCT 31: 36.0N 142.9E @ 95kph...2PM OCT 31: 39.3N 150.4E @ 65kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 165 km/hr (90 knots) with higher gusts. CHABA is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 340 kilometers (185 nautical miles). CHABA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 815 kilometers (440 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CHABA's circulation continues to deteriorate as it moves into an area of unfavorable atmospheric conditions. Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - remains at sea (south of Japan)...not affecting land areas. (click here to know more about CDO).
WEAKENING EYEWALL - remains at sea (south of Japan)...not affecting land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER SPIRAL RAINBANDS - no longer affecting the Ryukyus. Expected to spread across the southern coast of Honshu beginning tomorrow morning. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER SPIRAL RAINBANDS - still affecting the eastern islands of the Ryukyus...and has spread across the main Japanese islands of Kyushu, Shikoku and Honshu. Moderate to strong winds (<65 kph) can be expected along these bands today. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 150 mm (moderate) near the center of CHABA [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Okinawa...Ryukyu Islands...and across the southern coastlines of Japan tonight until tomorrow. Minimal to moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT NORTHEAST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing showers or rains can be expected along these following affected areas: NORTHERN & EASTERN LUZON, BICOL REGION. Lower temperatures (less than 30 degrees celsius) with cooler light to moderate North and NE winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: VISAYAS, MASBATE, PALAWAN & MINDANAO. Light to moderate NW, SE to variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY CHABA (KATRING)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1610.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290519Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A STEADY DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND
ELONGATION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE ALSO ADVECTING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS SEEN ON
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVE ANIMATION AND SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 35
KNOTS) AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 DEGREES CELSIUS). TY
16W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT CURRENTLY TRACKS
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. TY CHABA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. IT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AFTER TAU 12 AND
COMPLETE ET BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT, EXCEPT
FOR GFDN, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE FLOW. THIS FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFDN TRACK ERROR AND SLOW RECURVATURE
>> CHABA, meaning: Tropical flower (the shoeflower, genus hibiscus). Name contributed by: Thailand.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY CHABA (KATRING)...go visit our website @:
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