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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Oct 15 2010):
Please be informed that our 6-hourly SMS (Text) Storm Updates will begin once the typhoon enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Meanwhile, the 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on MEGI (15W) will continue.
MEGI (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
TYPHOON MEGI [15W/1013]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 007
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 15 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #008/SatFix/Recon
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MEGI (15W) still rapidly gaining strength...now a Category 2 Typhoon...will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight. The C-130 Aircraft Reconnaissance flights and the deployed Ocean Buoys (over the Philippine Sea) from the ITOP Research Team based in Guam supports continued observations on this cyclone.
Residents and visitors along Luzon particularly the Northern and Eastern Coastlines should closely monitor the progress of MEGI.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri Oct 15 2010
Location of Eye: 14.7º N Lat 136.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 195 km (105 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 595 km (320 nm) NNW of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 875 km (472 nm) WNW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 4: 1,350 km (730 nm) ENE of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 450 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft (7.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Fri Oct 15
MEGI's eye has emerged on visible satellite imagery...strong convection continues to develop along the eyewall...with expanding wind radii. The storm is expected to continue moving NW to WNW for the next 2 days...becoming a Major Typhoon (Category 3) as it enters PAR tonight...and eventually as a powerful Category 4 typhoon by tomorrow evening (Saturday) [8AM OCT 16: 16.1N 133.3E @ 205kph...8PM OCT 16: 17.1N 131.0E @ 220kph]. By Sunday morning, MEGI will start turning westward towards Northern Luzon - as the high pressure ridge to its north rebuilds and pushes the typhoon [8AM OCT 17: 17.7N 128.7E @ 230kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are now near 165 km/hr (90 knots) with higher gusts. MEGI is now a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...continued strengthening is expected through Sunday. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles). MEGI remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with an expanding diameter of 590 kilometers (320 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY MORNING: MEGI upgraded to a Super Typhoon as it approaches the coast of Isabela-Southern Cagayan...moving westward. Storm Surge (big waves) affecting the eastern coast of Luzon...deteriorating weather conditions begin across Northern Luzon [8AM OCT 18: 17.6N 124.3E @ 240kph]. Projected Landfall Area (Time): Over Isabela by Monday evening (8 PM).
TUESDAY MORNING: Its core will be over the west coast of Ilocos Sur, after traversing Northern Luzon...downgraded to Category 1 [8AM OCT 19: 17.3N 120.0E @ 140kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Moving Westward across the South China Sea...heading towards Hainan-Northern Vietnam Area...regains Category 2 status [8AM OCT 20: 17.2N 116.4E @ 160kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MEGI's powerful circulation and its rainbands remain at sea and are not yet affecting any major land areas (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 450 mm (heavy) near the center of MEGI, especially along the northern portion (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
External Links for TY MEGI (15W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
*TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 940 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY,
AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES, AND MICROWAVE SOUNDINGS ALL CONFIRM SUBSTANTIAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, ALTHOUGH THE RATE OF
DEEPENING HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS WITH
INFRARED READINGS OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NEGATIVE 80 CELSIUS. A 142112Z 37GHZ SSMI-S
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED EYE. CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BOLSTERED BY AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS FROM VARIOUS POINTS
WITHIN THE STORM AS WELL AS A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW.
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS VIGOROUS POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE DEVELOPED. SOME SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TUTT CELL REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE VISAYAS, BUT IN THE NEAR TERM
MEGI'S TRACK EXISTS IN A REGION OF VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
>> MEGI, meaning: Catfish. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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