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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Oct 24 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 16W (KATRING).
16W (KATRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W [KATRING]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 006
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sun 24 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #010/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 16W (KATRING) has strengthened a little bit and was relocated further South. This system remains broad, thus, the difficulty in locating the real low-level center.
Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 16W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, rains & frequent thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Light to moderate SW, South, SE winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today. The prevailing strong La Niña conditions over the Pacific Ocean enhances the ITCZ to be more active across the Philippines.
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun Oct 24 2010
Location of Ill-Defined Center: 14.7º N Lat 133.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 945 km (510 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1065 km (573 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 1180 km (637 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1215 km (655 nm) East of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 5: 1280 km (690 nm) East of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: SW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
18-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 220 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap #02 (for Public): 6 AM PhT Sun Oct 24
16W is expected to turn WNW-ward slowly for the next 24 hours and sharply NNW and Northward in 48 hours. This system will slowly gain strength and will become a Tropical Storm early tomorrow, Monday [2AM OCT 25: 16.1N 131.3E @ 65kph...2PM OCT 25: 17.2N 130.8E @ 75kph...2AM OCT 26: 18.5N 130.4E @ 95kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Near Typhoon strength as it continues to move poleward (north)...about 885 km East of Basco, Batanes, PH [2AM OCT 27: 20.6N 130.5E @ 110kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Recurves to the NNE towards the seas south of Japan, away from the Philippine Sea...about 975 km ENE of Basco, Batanes, PH [2AM OCT 28: 22.8N 131.0E @ 110kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the Philippines' Area of Forecasting Responsibility...about 405 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM OCT 29: 25.2N 131.8E @ 110kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
16W's developing circulation remains broad but has started to slowly organize over the central part of the Philippine Sea. Below are the summary of the cyclone's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - None yet (click here to know more about CDO).
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - still weak and disorganized...remains circulating over the Philippine Sea. Light to moderate winds (<35 kph) can be expected over the area today. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
18-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the developing rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 220 mm (heavy) located along 16W's periphery [view current NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - None (click here to know more about storm surge).
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, rains & frequent thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Light to moderate SW, South, SE winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today. The prevailing strong La Niña conditions over the Pacific Ocean enhances the ITCZ to be more active across the Philippines.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 16W (KATRING)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1610.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 231630Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED BUT STILL
BROAD CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE
AMSRE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS AND A 231248Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING 30 KNOT
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS INDUCING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND IS HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 16W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER CHINA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHWARD CAUSING THE STEERING RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND REORIENT. THIS
WILL ALLOW TD 16W TO TURN POLEWARD AROUND TAU 24. ADDITIONALLY,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSIFICATION RATE
SHOULD SLOW AROUND TAU 72, WHEN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD SURGE ORIGINATING OVER
NORTHERN CHINA. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SPLIT WITH NOGAPS,
GFS, UKMO, AND ECMWF FAVORING A POLEWARD TURN, WHILE GFDN AND JGSM
ARE ERRONEOUSLY TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD ALONG A PRESUMABLY
STRONGER STR. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS TRACKING
MORE POLEWARD IN ANTICIPATION OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH REORIENTING
THE STEERING RIDGE...(more)
RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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