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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Oct 13 2010):
Now starting the 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD 15W (UNNAMED) newly-formed WSW of Guam.
15W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Wed 13 October 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #001/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
The strong disturbance (LPA 90W) west-southwest of Guam has strengthened into Tropical Depression 15W (UNNAMED)...barely moving off the warm waters of the Western Pacific. Currently interacting with another strong disturbance (LPA 91W) located over the Philippine Sea.
Residents and visitors along Western Micronesia particularly Ulithi and Yap Islands should closely monitor the progress of 15W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 2:00 PM PhT Wed Oct 13 2010
Location of Center: 11.9º N Lat 140.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 455 km (245 nm) WSW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 405 km (218 nm) NE of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 640 km (345 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 1,675 km (905 nm) East of Borongan, E.Samar
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: Quasi-Stnry (01 kt)
Towards: Philippine Sea
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 230 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Wed Oct 13
ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)*
15W circulation continues to consolidate with developing rainbands on all quadrants. This system is having an interaction with the other strong disturbance, LPA 91W, located over the Philippine Sea. In the coming days, 15W is forecast to absorb the circulation of this LPA. The 2-day forecast outlook depicts 15W to start moving slowly Westward within the next 24 hours and become a tropical storm early tonight. It will begin to turn more northwesterly towards the Philippine Sea as a strong tropical storm. [8AM OCT 13: 11.6N 138.6E @ 75kph...8AM OCT 14: 12.8N 136.2E @ 95kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. 15W will continue to intensify over warm sea surface temperatures.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
SATURDAY MORNING: Tracking WNW after entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...upgraded to Category 1 Typhoon [8AM OCT 16: 14.8N 133.2E @ 120kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Continues to gather strength while over the central part of the Philippine Sea...turning more west [8AM OCT 17: 16.7N 130.4E @ 140kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Strengthens to Category 2...turns due west...threatens Northern Luzon [8AM OCT 18: 17.6N 126.9E @ 160kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
15W's developing rainbands remain at sea and are not yet affecting any land areas. Yap and Ulithi Islands is expected to be under the system's western outerbands later tonight and tomorrow. Moderate to strong winds of up to 40 km/hr can be expected within the developing bands of 15W (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) near the center of 15W (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Strong Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA/1006 MB) east of Samar is also showing signs of development, although, it is forecast in the coming days that 91W will be absorbed into the bands of the much stronger 15W. The developing center of 91W was located near lat 12.7N lon 130.6E...or about 650 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center...drifting West slowly. The 48-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system is now at 60%. Click here to view current satellite visible image and flash animation.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 15W (UNNAMED)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1410.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
260 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 122231Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ITOP C-130 OBSERVATIONS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW
AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT
CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST...(more)
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD 15W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
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