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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Oct 15 2010):
Please be informed that our 6-hourly SMS (Text) Storm Updates will begin once the typhoon enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Meanwhile, the 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on MEGI (15W) will continue.
MEGI (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
TYPHOON MEGI [15W/1013]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 006
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Fri 15 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #008/SatFix/Recon
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MEGI (15W) rapidly strengthened into a Typhoon as it jogs slightly northwestward during the past 3 hours...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight.
Residents and visitors along Luzon particularly the Northern and Eastern Coastlines should closely monitor the progress of MEGI.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri Oct 15 2010
Location of Center: 13.9º N Lat 137.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 270 km (145 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 495 km (267 nm) North of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 790 km (425 nm) WNW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 4: 1,425 km (770 nm) East of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 400 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft (6.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Fri Oct 15
MEGI is now showing a microwave eye with strong convection surrounding its radial circulation. The storm is expected to move WNW for the next 2 days...becoming a Major Typhoon (Category 3) after entering PAR tonight...and eventually as a powerful Category 4 typhoon by tomorrow afternoon [2AM OCT 16: 15.7N 134.0E @ 185kph...2PM OCT 16: 16.6N 131.6E @ 215kph]. By Sunday early morning, MEGI will start to turn westward towards Northern Luzon - as the high pressure ridge to its north rebuilds [2AM OCT 17: 17.2N 129.3E @ 220kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 150 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts. MEGI is now a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...continued strengthening is likely today through Sunday. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 140 kilometers (75 nautical miles). MEGI is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 520 kilometers (280 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching the coast of NE Luzon (Southern Cagayan-Isabela-Northern Aurora)...winds increases to near super typhoon strength...Storm surge (big waves) battering the eastern coast of Luzon. Projected Landfall Area (Time): Over Isabela Monday afternoon (3-4 PM) [2AM OCT 18: 17.5N 125.0E @ 230kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Over Ilocos Sur after traversing Northern Luzon...downgraded to Category 1 [2AM OCT 19: 17.1N 120.6E @ 130kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving WNW across the South China Sea...heading towards Southern China...regains Category 2 status [2AM OCT 20: 17.9N 116.5E @ 160kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MEGI's radial circulation and its rainbands remain at sea and are not yet affecting any major land areas. However, Yap and Ulithi Islands continues to be under the typhoon's southern outermost rainbands. Moderate winds of 15 to 35 km/hr can be expected along Yap and Ulithi Islands (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (heavy) near the center of MEGI, especially along the northern portion (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA/1006 MB) over the Southern Philippine Sea has dissipated.
External Links for TY MEGI (15W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
*TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH OF YAP, HAS
TRACKED WEST NORTHWEST AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SUPPRESSION OF OUTFLOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM HAS CEASED AND THE SYSTEM NOW HAS
WELL DEVELOPED OUTFLOW CHANNELS ON ALL SIDES. BOUNDARY LAYER
PROCESSES HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE VIGOROUS AND ORGANIZED, AND THE
SYSTEM IS NOW SPORTING A MICROWAVE EYE. CONVECTION IS CONSOLIDATING
AROUND THE CENTER AND CONVECTIVE BANDING IS NOW PRESENT ON ALL SIDES
OF THE STORM. ALONG-TRACK CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE
FROM CONSENSUS AND STEER THE STORM ON A POLEWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72,
HOWEVER THIS IS A VERY RECENT DEVELOPMENT AND THROUGH TAU 72, THERE
EXISTS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK AND GOOD AGREEMENT
>> MEGI, meaning: Catfish. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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