for Tuesday, 05 October 2010 [1:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday Oct 05 2010):
Now starting the 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD 14W (UNNAMED).
14W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 001
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Tue 05 October 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #001/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
The strong disturbance (95W/LPA) off the southern coast of Hainan Island has stregthened into Tropical Depression 14W (UNNAMED)...now crossing Hainan...passing close to Danzhou City. Heavy rainbands occurring across the area.
Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Western Guangdong should closely monitor the progress of 14W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 24 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Tue Oct 05 2010
Location of Center: 19.5º N Lat 109.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 30 km (16 nm) SW of Danzhou, Hainan
Distance 2: 75 km (40 nm) ENE of Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 3: 125 km (67 nm) North of Sanya, Hainan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Western Guangdong
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 250 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 9 ft (2.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Tue Oct 05
14W is expected to continue moving Northward and will become a minimal Tropical Storm tomorrow while over the Gulf of Tonkin. It will make landfall over Western Guangdong tomorrow evening (Wednesday)...and gradually dissipate along the mountains of West Guangdong on Thursday [8AM OCT 06: 19.9N 108.9E @ 55kph...8PM OCT 06: 21.1N 108.9E @ 75kph...8AM OCT 07: 22.4N 109.5E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts...slight strengthening is expected tonight or tomorrow as the depression moves back to sea (Gulf of Tonkin).
FRIDAY MORNING: Dissipates over China...a very weak tropical disturbance (LPA) [8AM OCT 08: 23.7N 111.8E @ 20kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
14W has rapidly intensified from a weak disturbance to a depression in a span of 12 hours, thus the issuance of this advisory. Moderate to strong winds of up to 50 km/hr can be expected along the island of Hainan and along the Gulf of Tonkin today. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 180 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands or over the Island of Hainan and the Gulf of Tonkin...with isolated amounts of up to 250 mm (heavy) near the center of 14W (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
External Links for TD 14W (UNNAMED)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1410.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 40 NM SOUTH OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AND INCREASED
DRAMATICALLY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 041857Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A COMMA-SHAPED CONVECTIVE BAND FEEDING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE CONFIRMS A
LARGE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS
DEVELOPED AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST
SOUTH OF HAINAN ISLAND. THIS CHANNEL IS AIDING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE SYSTEM CENTER. DESPITE THE COMMA PATTERN INDICATED ON A 042346Z
91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE, CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LLCC IS
ONLY FAIR AS THE CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS AND A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 2.0...(more)
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 14W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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