for Thursday, 28 October 2010 [2:01 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday Oct 26 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly SMS, web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TY CHABA (KATRING).
CHABA (KATRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 165 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON CHABA [KATRING/16W/1014]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 019
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 28 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #027/SatFixes/Radar
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
CHABA (KATRING) becomes a Category 4 Typhoon...expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon...Okinawa now under the system's inner rainbands. Kadena Air Base Weather Station in Okinawa is currently reporting Tropical Storm Force Winds of 60 kph, gusting to 95 kph with pressure readings of 1000 millibars (hPa). Click here to view the station's webpage, updated every 4 mins!
Residents and visitors along Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the progress of CHABA.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:30 PM PhT Thu Oct 28 2010
Location of Eye: 24.6º N Lat 129.0º E Lon {Radar Fix}
Distance 1: 235 km (127 nm) SSE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 450 km (243 nm) SSW of Naje Is., Japan
Distance 3: 750 km (405 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 850 km (460 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 215 kph (115 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph (140 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Ryukyus-Southern Japan Area
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 400 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 815 km (440 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
T2K Final TrackMap #15 (for Public): 12:30 PM PhT Thu Oct 28
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
CHABA is expected to track NE-ward in the direction of Ryukyu and Southern Honshu area for the next 2 days. The core will pass about 215 km to the east of Kadena Air Base in Okinawa tonight between 8 to 10 PM Japan Time (11-13 GMT). By 36 to 48 hours, CHABA will start to accelerate as it begins Extratropical transition, and will be approaching the shores of Southern Honshu on Saturday morning [8AM OCT 29: 27.2N 130.9E @ 165kph...8PM OCT 29: 29.4N 132.6E @ 140kph...8AM OCT 30: 31.9N 134.9E @ 110kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 215 km/hr (115 knots) with higher gusts. CHABA is now a Category 4 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will start to weaken later today. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 340 kilometers (185 nautical miles). CHABA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 815 kilometers (440 nautical miles). 
SUNDAY MORNING: Off the east coast of Honshu after passing very close to Tokyo around midnight...already an Extratropical Cyclone...about 215 km SE of Sendai, Japan [8AM OCT 31: 37.1N 142.8E @ 75kph]. MONDAY MORNING: Passing south of the Kuril Islands [8AM NOV 01: 42.4N 154.1E @ 65kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CHABA is now displaying a large symmetric 75-km eye with strong eyewall convection. The typhoon has completed an Eyewall Replacement Cycle. Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: LARGE SYMMETRIC EYE [75-km in diameter] - remains at sea (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - remains at sea (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER SPIRAL RAINBANDS - affecting Okinawa, where Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these bands today. OUTER SPIRAL RAINBANDS - affecting Ryukyu Islands, where moderate to strong winds (<65 kph) can be expected along these bands today. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (heavy) near the center of CHABA [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic]. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Eastern Taiwan, Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands today...and across the southern coastlines of Japan beginning tonight until tomorrow. Minimal to extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Southern Japan and the Batanes Group today. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT NORTHEAST MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing showers or rains can be expected along these following affected areas: NORTHERN & EASTERN LUZON, BICOL REGION. Lower temperatures (less than 30 degrees celsius) with cooler light to moderate North and NE winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: VISAYAS, MASBATE, PALAWAN & MINDANAO. Light to moderate NW, SE to variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY CHABA (KATRING)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1610.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE COMPLETING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE, TY CHABA HAS MANAGED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITHIN
THE LAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
ENLARGED, SYMMETRIC 40 NM EYE. INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE
PGTW FIX AND KADENA RADAR FIX. PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES
ARE INDICATING INTENSITIES BETWEEN 102 TO 127 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS
INTENSIFIED DUE TO DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, WITH AN ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST. TY 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST...(more)
>> CHABA, meaning: Tropical flower (the shoeflower, genus hibiscus). Name contributed by: Thailand.
RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM FINAL TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY CHABA (KATRING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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