for Thursday, 21 October 2010 [7:23 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Oct 21 2010):
Ending the 6-hrly SMS updates on MEGI (JUAN), as the system exits PAR...while the 6-hrly web and e-mail updates continues.
MEGI (JUAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
TYPHOON MEGI [JUAN/15W/1013]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 027
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 21 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #034/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon MEGI (JUAN) downgraded to Category 2 as it drifts slowly northward...closer to Southeastern China. Landfall expected along Southeastern China in 36 to 48 hours.
Residents and visitors along Southern & Southeastern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of MEGI (JUAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms especially in the afrernoon or evening can be expected along these following affected areas: CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, PALAWAN, VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW, South to Variable winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected today.
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu Oct 21 2010
Location of Eye: 20.1º N Lat 117.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 370 km (200 nm) NW of Laoag City
Distance 2: 385 km (208 nm) SW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 3: 380 km (205 nm) SSE of Shantou, China
Distance 4: 430 km (232 nm) ESE of Hong Kong
Distance 5: 490 km (265 nm) SSW of Xiamen, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph (95 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph (115 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Southeastern China (Guangdong-Fujian Border)
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 350 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 935 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 37 ft (11.2 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunderground.com TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Thu Oct 21
MEGI will continue to weaken slowly until it makes landfall over Southeastern China within the next 36 hours. Its track will remain moving northward and then veering slightly towards the NNW. This system will be downgraded to a tropical storm after moving into the Eastern Guangdong or Southern Fujian Area on Saturday morning [2PM OCT 22: 22.0N 117.9E @ 140kph...2AM OCT 23: 23.2N 117.7E @ 120kph...2PM OCT 23: 24.3N 117.2E @ 95kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 175 km/hr (95 knots) with higher gusts. MEGI is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles). MEGI remains a large-sized tropical cyclone, measuring about 890 kilometers (480 nautical miles) across. 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipating rapidly along the Guangdong-Fujian border in China - as MEGI moves further inland. Just a Tropical Depression. [2PM OCT 24: 25.5N 115.8E @ 45kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MEGI's large convective circulation remains strong and has shrunk slightly and is now starting to spread across the coastal areas of Southeastern China. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: ROUND EYE [75-KM DIAMETER] - remains over water (South China Sea), but it is forecast to make landfall along the Chinese towns in between the cities of Shantou and Xiamen on Saturday morning (Oct 23)...around 8 to 9 AM Beijing Time. NORTHERN EYEWALL - remains over water (South China Sea), but will reach the chinese towns in between the cities of Shantou and Xiamen by early Saturday morning (Oct 23). Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected along these areas. INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water (South China Sea), but will reach the shorelines/coastal areas of Eastern Guangdong and Fujian provinces beginning tonight. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these areas. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across Southern and Southeastern China, Taiwan, Northwestern and Western Luzon. Moderate to strong winds (<65 kph) with passing on-and-off showers, squalls or thunderstorms can be expected along these areas today. 24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (heavy) near the center of MEGI [view current NOAA's eTRaP graphic]. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Northwestern Luzon today...and over Western Taiwan...and in Guangdong, Fujian Provinces in China beginning tomorrow until Saturday. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from large swells and Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern China and Western Luzon in the Philippines today.
The Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA/1006 MB) west of the Marianas still trying to consolidate over the Western Pacific. It was located near lat 16.9N lon 141.6E...or about 2030 km East of Northern Luzon...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center...moving WNW @ 22 kph towards the Philippine Sea. The 24 to 48-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system remains at 85%. Click here to view current satellite image and flash animation. JTWC has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) on this disturbance.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY MEGI (JUAN)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MEGI CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON A 40 NM ROUND EYE. PULSING CENTRAL CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WIDE RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES AMONG PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. IN LIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THIS FORECAST
BIASES ITS INITIAL INTENSITY TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A STRONG SHEAR GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA.
HOWEVER, INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL MODERATE THE EFFECTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN TYPHOON
STRENGTH TILL LANDFALL. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DETACH FROM ITS
(NORTHEASTWARD) SHEARED CONVECTION AND TRACK OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA
WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
POLEWARD TRACK WITH EGRR AND GFS BEING EASTERN OUTLIERS. THIS
FORECAST DEVIATES LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES CLOSE
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...(more)
>> MEGI, meaning: Catfish. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE & INFORMATION SERVICE
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MEGI (JUAN)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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