Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 16W [UNNAMED]

for Friday, 22 October 2010 [11:35 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Oct 22 2010):

Now issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 16W.

MEGI (JUAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 30 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 001
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 22 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #003/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Depression 16W (UNNAMED), a newly-formed tropical cyclone over the Western Pacific, west of the Marianas...accelerating WSW towards the Philippine Sea. This system remains weak and is yet to fully consolidate, thus, multiple low-level centers are possible.

Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 16W (UNNAMED).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri Oct 22 2010
Location of Ill-Defined Center: 15.7º N Lat 137.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 300 km (162 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 840 km (453 nm) WNW of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 3: 795 km (430 nm) WNW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 4: 1725 km (930 nm) ESE of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 5: 1585 km (855 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 250 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunderground.com TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Fri Oct 22

FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)*

16W is expected to track west to WSW for the next 24 to 48 hours and shall become a Tropical Storm upon entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Saturday afternoon or evening [8AM OCT 23: 16.8N 135.7E @ 55kph...8PM OCT 23: 16.6N 134.5E @ 65kph...8AM OCT 24: 16.6N 133.3E @ 75kph].

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. This system will slowly intensify throughout the forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*

MONDAY MORNING: Turning more WNW to NW'ly across the Philippine Sea...about 1000 km east of Ilagan, Isabela [8AM OCT 25: 17.4N 131.2E @ 85kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Still heading NW'ly slowly and intensifying further into a Severe Tropical Storm...about 865 km east of Aparri, Cagayan [8AM OCT 26: 18.4N 129.9E @ 100kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: No change in its track...continuing on its NW direction...near Typhoon strength. About 685 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [8AM OCT 27: 19.6N 128.5E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

16W's developing circulation remains partially exposed, with its rain-cloud convection located south of its center. Below are the summary of the cyclone's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - None.
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - still weak and disorganized.
24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the developing rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 250 mm (heavy) near the center of 16W [view current NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - None.

CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms especially in the afrernoon or evening can be expected along these following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Light to moderate SW, South to Variable winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected today.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD 16W (Unnamed)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1610.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 22 OCTOBER POSITION: 17.3N 139.8E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH INCREASING 20-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT CELL NEAR 18N 153E. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS
FROM KNES AND PGTW. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC...(more)

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

NOT AVAILABLE
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 16W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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