for Saturday, 23 October 2010 [6:45 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Oct 23 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 16W (KATRING).
16W (KATRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W [KATRING]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 23 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #008/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 16W (KATRING) has been moving westerly during the past 6 hours...remains weak and disorganized.
Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 16W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, rains & frequent thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Light to moderate SW, South, SE winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today. The prevailing strong La Niña conditions over the Pacific Ocean enhances the ITCZ to be more active across the Philippines.
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat Oct 23 2010
Location of Ill-Defined Center: 16.2º N Lat 133.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 1135 km (613 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 2: 1205 km (650 nm) East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 1240 km (670 nm) ESE of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 4: 1330 km (718 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 320 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PhT Sat Oct 23
16W is expected to turn WNW-ward slowly for the next 24 hours and slowly intensify. This system will reach minimal Tropical Storm status by early Monday morning, and shall start to turn NW to NNW slowly across the Philippine Sea late Monday [2PM OCT 24: 16.7N 131.5E @ 55kph...2AM OCT 25: 17.2N 130.7E @ 65kph...2PM OCT 25: 17.8N 130.2E @ 75kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifying steadily as it moves northward slowly...about 860 km East of Calayan Is., Cagayan, PH [2PM OCT 26: 19.1N 129.7E @ 100kph]. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its northward track...nears Typhoon strength...about 795 km ENE of Basco, Batanes, PH [2PM OCT 27: 21.2N 129.6E @ 110kph]. THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Upgraded to Typhoon...accelerating slightly North to NNE-ward, away from the Philippine Sea...about 865 km East of Hualien City, Taiwan [2PM OCT 28: 23.9N 130.1E @ 130kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
16W's developing circulation remains sheared-off, with most of its rain-cloud convection located about 100 km to the south & SW of its low-level center. Below are the summary of the cyclone's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - None (click here to know more about CDO). DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - still weak and disorganized...the southern and SW portion affecting the Micronesian islands of Yap, Ulithi and Palau. Light to moderate winds (<35 kph) can be expected today. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the developing rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 320 mm (heavy) located along 16W's periphery [view current NOAA's eTRaP graphic]. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - None (click here to know more about storm surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 16W (KATRING)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1610.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
230459Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON RJTD AND PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE TO
THE NORTH INDUCED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT).
TD 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 36
HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TD 16W TO TRACK POLEWARD. AS THE TUTT
CELL CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AND ALLOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
SUBSIDENCE TO CONSEQUENTLY RELAX, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY. AS TD 16W INTENSIFIES, IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE BY TAU
60 AND INCREASE THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
UNCERTAINTY AS THEY ARE SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN.
NOGAPS, GFS, UKMO, AND ECMWF MODELS ARE TRACKING THE SYSTEM
POLEWARD. THE GFDN AND JGSM MODELS ARE OUTLIERS AND ERRONEOUSLY
TRACK TD 16W WESTWARD ALONG A STRONGER STR. THIS FORECAST IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS TRACKING MORE POLEWARD GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION OF A DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TAUS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS IS DUE
TO AN EXPECTED COLD SURGE ORIGINATING OVER NORTHERN CHINA, WHICH MAY
INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE LATER TAUS AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO INTENSIFY LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED...(more)
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 16W (KATRING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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