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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Oct 24 2010):
T2K added a Page 2 of the "Weather Station" link to include a network of Davis Weather Stations around the Philippines. The first weather station to join us is the De La Salle Santiago Zobel Campus in Ayala Alabang, Muntinlupa City. You can visit this page to know how you can add your station. Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TS CHABA (KATRING).
CHABA (KATRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 kph
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM CHABA [KATRING/16W/1014]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 010
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Mon 25 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #015/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Storm CHABA (KATRING) has gained more strength as it moves northwestward slowly across the north-central Philippine Sea...still not a threat to the country.
Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon...Okinawa...and Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the progress of CHABA.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon Oct 25 2010
Location of Center: 17.2º N Lat 130.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 910 km (490 nm) ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 935 km (505 nm) East of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 3: 945 km (510 nm) ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 950 km (513 nm) ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1055 km (570 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 480 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft (5.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-2 ft [0.3-0.6 m]
T2K TrackMap #06 (for Public): 12 PM PhT Mon Oct 25
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
CHABA is expected to maintain its NW'ly track for the next 24 hours and then turn sharply Northward as it becomes a Category 1 Typhoon by tomorrow Tuesday night. This system will continue to intensify as it moves across the warm waters of the North Philippine Sea in the direction of Okinawa-Ryukyu Area [8AM OCT 26: 18.7N 129.4E @ 110kph...8PM OCT 26: 19.3N 129.2E @ 130kph...8AM OCT 27: 20.1N 129.1E @ 150kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center. CHABA is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 520 kilometers (280 nautical miles).
THURSDAY MORNING: CHABA continues to track north towards Okinawa-Ryukyus Area...upgraded to a Category 2 typhoon...about 745 km ENE of Basco, Batanes, PH [8AM OCT 28: 22.0N 129.0E @ 160kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Approaching Okinawa-Ryukyus Area...near peak intensity...about 310 km SSE of Naha, Okinawa [8AM OCT 29: 23.9N 129.1E @ 165kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Exits the Philippines' Area of Forecasting Responsibility...passing just to the east of Okinawa...begins Extratropical transition...about 180 km East of Naha, Okinawa [8AM OCT 30: 26.6N 129.8E @ 140kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CHABA's circulation continues to improve with deep, rain cloud convection mostly from the south and west - wrapping into the center. Below are the summary of the cyclone's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - continues to form over the North Central Philippine Sea...small area of Tropical Storm Force Winds located near the center - especially along the SW periphery. (click here to know more about CDO).
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - improving on all sides, except the NW, Northern and NE portions. Soon, these rainbands will be divided into two parts (the inner and the outer). Moderate to strong winds (<60 kph) can be expected along these bands today. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the developing rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 480 mm (heavy) near the center of CHABA, especially along the western and southern peripheries. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - None (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with isolated to scattered afternoon or evening showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: BICOL REGION, SOUTHERN LUZON AND THE VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW, South, SE winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today. The prevailing strong La Niña conditions over the Pacific Ocean enhances the ITCZ to be more active across the Philippines.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS CHABA (KATRING)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1610.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION
BANDING WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 241929Z TRMM 36H MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH
DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED, AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS
LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC AND
IS HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE. A 240000Z AND 241200Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES INDICATE A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS TRACKING OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA AND DIGGING
>> CHABA, meaning: Tropical flower (the shoeflower, genus hibiscus). Name contributed by: Thailand.
RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS CHABA (KATRING)...go visit our website @:
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