for Monday, 25 October 2010 [6:25 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Oct 24 2010):
T2K added a Page 2 of the "Weather Station" link to include a network of Davis Weather Stations around the Philippines. The first weather station to join us is the De La Salle Santiago Zobel Campus in Ayala Alabang, Muntinlupa City. You can visit this page to know how you can add your station. Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TS CHABA (KATRING).
CHABA (KATRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 kph
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM CHABA [KATRING/16W/1014]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 011
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 25 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #016/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Storm CHABA (KATRING) continues to intensify steadily while over the Philippine Sea...turns more NNW. This storm will not affect any part of the Philippines as most of the guidance forecast models bring it near Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands in 3 to 4 days.
Residents and visitors along Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the progress of CHABA.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon Oct 25 2010
Location of Center: 17.9º N Lat 130.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 870 km (470 nm) ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 885 km (478 nm) ENE of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 3: 890 km (480 nm) ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 900 km (485 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 1030 km (555 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 500 mm (Very Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K TrackMap #07 (for Public): 6 PM PhT Mon Oct 25
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
CHABA is expected to maintain its NW to NNW track within the next 24 hours before turning sharply to the North in the direction of Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands. This system will continue to intensify and will become a Category 1 Typhoon later tonight...then will be upgraded to Category 2 by Wednesday afternoon. [2PM OCT 26: 19.6N 129.2E @ 140kph...2AM OCT 27: 20.4N 129.1E @ 160kph...2PM OCT 27: 21.5N 129.1E @ 165kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center. CHABA is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 520 kilometers (280 nautical miles). 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: CHABA starting to recurve as it tracks NNE-ward closer to Okinawa-Ryukyus Area...strength at near Category 3...shall be about 815 km NE of Basco, Batanes, PH [2PM OCT 28: 23.3N 129.3E @ 175kph]. FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the Philippine Area of (Forecasting) Responsibility (PAR)...passing just to the east of Okinawa-Ryukyus Area...starts to weaken...shall be about 220 km SE of Naha, Okinawa [2PM OCT 29: 25.7N 130.0E @ 165kph]. SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Begins Extratropical transition...accelerating NE-ward, away from Ryukyus...shall be about 235 km ENE of Naje Island, Japan [2PM OCT 30: 29.2N 132.1E @ 140kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CHABA's circulation continues to improve with deep, rain cloud convection mostly from the south and west - wrapping into the center. Below are the summary of the cyclone's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - newly-formed with a small area of 95 to 100-kph Tropical Storm Force Winds which extend outward up to 30 kilometers from the center (click here to know more about CDO). DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - continues to improve on all sides, except the Northern and NE portions. Soon, these rainbands will be divided into two parts (the inner and the outer). Moderate to Tropical Storm Force Winds (<100 kph) can be expected along these bands today (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 220 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the developing rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 500 mm (heavy to very heavy) near the center of CHABA [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic]. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - None (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with isolated to scattered afternoon or evening showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: BICOL REGION, CENTRAL LUZON, METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN LUZON, VISAYAS, & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW, South, SE winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected today. The prevailing strong La Niña conditions over the Pacific Ocean enhances the ITCZ to be more active across the Philippines.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS CHABA (KATRING)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1610.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WITHIN THE
PAST SIX HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
250440Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
55 KNOTS. TS 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST
TO TO RE-ORIENT AND WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST, ALLOWING TS 16W TO TURN
MORE POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO THE TROUGH AND GOOD EXISTING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD SUPPORT
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, TS CHABA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
MORE TO THE RIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS WELL AS LOWER OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT SHOULD START TO WEAKEN TS 16W AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNREALISTICALLY
ABRUPT WESTWARD GFDN SOLUTION...(more)
>> CHABA, meaning: Tropical flower (the shoeflower, genus hibiscus). Name contributed by: Thailand.
RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS CHABA (KATRING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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