<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Oct 22 2010):
Just updated the FLASH ANIMATION for MEGI...now at 62 hours! Meanwhile, T2K continues to issue 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TY MEGI (JUAN). Currently developing the 2 pages for TDs 16W & 17W, to be uploaded this morning.
MEGI (JUAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
TYPHOON MEGI [JUAN/15W/1013]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 028
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Fri 22 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #036/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon MEGI (JUAN) continues to lose strength as it drifts NNE slowly...threatens Western Taiwan and Southeastern China.
Residents and visitors along Southern & Southeastern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of MEGI (JUAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms especially in the afrernoon or evening can be expected along these following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Light to moderate SW, South to Variable winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected today.
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri Oct 22 2010
Location of Eye: 20.8º N Lat 118.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 305 km (165 nm) SW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 330 km (178 nm) SE of Shantou, China
Distance 3: 385 km (208 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 410 km (220 nm) South of Xiamen, China
Distance 5: 445 km (240 nm) ESE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Southeastern China (Guangdong-Fujian Border)
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 350 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 945 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 815 km (440 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 ft (10.3 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunderground.com TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Fri Oct 22
MEGI will continue to decay until it makes landfall over Southeastern China tomorrow afternoon or evening. Its track will start to turn North to NNW later tonight. This system will be downgraded to a tropical storm prior in making landfall in Eastern Guangdong or Southern Fujian Area...and will quickly dissipate as it moves inland through Sunday [2AM OCT 23: 22.3N 118.3E @ 130kph...2PM OCT 23: 23.6N 118.0E @ 100kph...2AM OCT 24: 24.8N 117.5E @ 75kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 165 km/hr (90 knots) with higher gusts. MEGI is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles). MEGI remains a large-sized tropical cyclone, measuring about 295 kilometers (160 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Just an area of low pressure or remnants of MEGI off Fujian Province [2AM OCT 25: 26.4N 117.0E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MEGI's large convective circulation continues to weaken due to increasing unfavorable upper-air environment (strong upper-level winds). Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
RAGGED EYE [75-KM DIAMETER] - remains over water (South China Sea), but it is forecast to make landfall along the Chinese towns, just southwest of Xiamen City on Saturday evening (Oct 23)...around 6 to 8 PM Beijing Time.
EYEWALL - remains over water (South China Sea), but the northern eyewall will reach coast of Southeastern China particularly from Xiamen down to Shantou City by Saturday afternoon (Oct 23).
INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water (South China Sea), but will reach the shorelines/coastal areas of Eastern Guangdong and Fujian provinces today. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these areas.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across Southern and Southeastern China, Taiwan, and Northwestern Luzon. Moderate to strong winds (<65 kph) with passing on-and-off showers, squalls or thunderstorms can be expected along these areas today.
24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (heavy) near the center of MEGI [view current NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Western Taiwan...and in Eastern Guangdong and Fujian Provinces in China today until tomorrow. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from large swells and Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern China and Western Luzon in the Philippines today.
The Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA/1002 MB) west of the Marianas and Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA/1002 MB) are now both Tropical Depressions (16W and 17W). Separate pages on these systems are being created at this time.
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms especially in the afrernoon or evening can be expected along these following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Light to moderate SW, South to Variable winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected today.
CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms especially in the afrernoon or evening can be expected along these following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Light to moderate SW, South to Variable winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY MEGI (JUAN)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211756Z
AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS DUE TO WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUT THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 40NM
RAGGED EYE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON
THIS WEAKENING AS WELL AS ON THE LOWER DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS (RJTD IS CURRENTLY AT 115 KNOTS). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TY 15W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED EAST. THE 21/12Z
500MB ANALYSIS AND SOUNDINGS (E.G., FROM ISHIGAKI-JIMA) INDICATE
WESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CHINA AND SUPPORT A STRONG STEERING STR. THE TROUGH IS
PROPAGATING NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING STRENGTH,
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST. TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72...(more)
>> MEGI, meaning: Catfish. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE & INFORMATION SERVICE
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MEGI (JUAN)...go visit our website @:
:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
Copyright © 2010 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved