for Saturday, 23 October 2010 [7:15 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Oct 22 2010):
Just updated the FLASH ANIMATION for MEGI...now at 62 hours! Meanwhile, T2K continues to issue 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TY MEGI (JUAN).
MEGI (JUAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
TYPHOON MEGI [JUAN/15W/1013]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 031
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 23 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #040/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MEGI (JUAN) just a Category 1 Typhoon...as it barrels down the coast of Southeastern China...landfall expected this afternoon in the vicinity of Xiamen City.
Residents and visitors along Southern & Southeastern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of MEGI (JUAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 36 hours)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat Oct 23 2010
Location of Eye: 23.2º N Lat 118.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 145 km (78 nm) South of Xiamen, China
Distance 2: 155 km (83 nm) ESE of Shantou, China
Distance 3: 225 km (122 nm) WNW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 4: 420 km (227 nm) ENE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Southeastern China (Guangdong-Fujian Border)
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 150 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft (6.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sat Oct 23
MEGI will continue to decay until it makes landfall over Southeastern China this afternoon. Its track will remain northward throughout the forecast period. This system will be downgraded to a tropical storm after making landfall near Xiamen city district...and will quickly dissipate as it moves inland through Sunday [2PM OCT 23: 24.2N 118.0E @ 130kph...2AM OCT 24: 25.5N 118.0E @ 75kph...2PM OCT 24: 26.8N 118.2E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 150 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts. MEGI is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 240 kilometers (130 nautical miles). MEGI is an average-sized tropical cyclone, measuring about 590 kilometers (320 nautical miles) across.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
MEGI's convective circulation continues to erode and shrink as it approaches coast of Southeastern China. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: 
SMALL, RAGGED EYE - approaching the coast of Southern Fujian. Forecast to make landfall very near Xiamen City this afternoon...between 2 to 4 PM Beijing Time. EYEWALL - just off the coast of Southern Fujian...the northern eyewall will move onshore later this morning. INNER RAINBANDS - now affecting most parts of Southern Fujian. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these areas today. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting Western Taiwan and the Chinese provinces of Eastern Guangdong, Fujian, and Southern Jiangxi. Moderate to strong winds (<65 kph) with passing on-and-off showers, squalls or thunderstorms can be expected along these areas today. 24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 150 mm (moderate) near the center of MEGI [view current NOAA's eTRaP graphic]. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Western Taiwan...and in Eastern Guangdong and Fujian Provinces in China today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from large swells and Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern & Southeastern China and Taiwan today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY MEGI (JUAN)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST OF HONG KONG,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T=4.5(77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING JUST TO
THE WEST OF TY 15W. IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH, TY 15W HAS
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY FROM SOUTHEASTERN TAIWAN INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AROUND A 30 NM EYE, WHICH IS ALSO
EVIDENT IN BOTH INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DESPITE INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE,PASSAGE OVER A WARM SEA SURFACE AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENABLE TY 15W TO MAINTAIN TYPHOON
INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL AROUND TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE
CURRENT SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST...(more)
>> MEGI, meaning: Catfish. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE & INFORMATION SERVICE
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MEGI (JUAN)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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