for Thursday, 21 October 2010 [12:24 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Oct 21 2010):
Ending the 6-hrly SMS updates on MEGI (JUAN), as the system exits PAR...while the 6-hrly web and e-mail updates continues.
MEGI (JUAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
TYPHOON MEGI [JUAN/15W/1013]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 026
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 21 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #033/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon MEGI (JUAN) has maintained its wind speed as it crawls northward, closer to Southeastern China. Loose patches of the typhoon's outer rainbands are still bringing squalls (aka. "Subasko") and thunderstorms across Western Luzon including Metropolitan Manila, Western Bicol, Western Visayas, Palawan and Mindoro.
Residents and visitors along Southern & Southeastern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of MEGI (JUAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Thu Oct 21 2010
Location of Eye: 19.5º N Lat 117.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 355 km (192 nm) NW of Laoag City
Distance 2: 370 km (200 nm) NW of Vigan City
Distance 3: 440 km (237 nm) SSE of Shantou, China
Distance 4: 465 km (250 nm) SE of Hong Kong
Distance 5: 485 km (262 nm) WSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 6: 450 km (242 nm) SW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Southeastern China (Guangdong-Fujian Border)
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 350 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 940 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 1,000 km (540 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 38 ft (11.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
T2K Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Thu Oct 21
MEGI maintains its large organized circulation, with deep rain convection especially along the southern side and a large ragged eye as seen on satellite imageries. The typhoon is expected to continue moving slowly northward towards Southeastern China Area within the next two days. MEGI is still forecast to slowly decay as it approaches and make landfall (as a strong Tropical Storm) along the shores of Southern Fujian or Eastern Guangdong on Saturday morning (Oct 23) [8AM OCT 22: 21.5N 117.8E @ 140kph...8AM OCT 23: 24.0$N 117.3E @ 100kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 185 km/hr (100 knots) with higher gusts. MEGI is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles). MEGI remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone, measuring about 1,000 kilometers (540 nautical miles) across. 
SUNDAY MORNING: Dissipating along the Guangdong-Fujian border in China - as MEGI moves further inland [8AM OCT 24: 25.0N 116.4E @ 85kph]. MONDAY MORNING: Near dissipation...just an area of low pressure along the Guangdong-Fujian-Jiangxi border. [8AM OCT 25: 25.8N 115.3E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MEGI's very large convective circulation remains intact, except along the southern portion, where its outer rainbands have become loose and detach from the inner rainbands. The detach or loose outer rainbands of the typhoon are affecting portions of Luzon and Visayas. LARGE, RAGGED EYE [75-KM DIAMETER] - remains over water (South China Sea). EYEWALL - remains over water (South China Sea). INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water (South China Sea). OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across Southern and Southeastern China and Taiwan. Meanwhile, loose patches of these bands, which are becoming a part of an "off-season" Southwest Monsoon - are affecting Western Luzon including Metro Manila, Palawan, Mindoro, and Western Bicol Region. Moderate to strong winds (<55 kph) with passing on-and-off showers, squalls or thunderstorms can be expected along these areas today. 24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 350 mm (heavy) near the center of MEGI [view current NOAA's eTRaP graphic]. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Northwestern Luzon today...and over Western Taiwan...and in Guangdong, Fujian Provinces in China beginning tomorrow until Saturday. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from large swells and Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern China and Western Luzon in the Philippines today.
The Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA/1006 MB) west of the Marianas has become weak and disorganized. It was located near lat 16.0N lon 142.4E...or about 2145 km East of Northern Luzon...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center...moving WNW @ 22 kph towards the Philippine Sea. The 24 to 48-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system remains at 85%. Click here to view current satellite image and flash animation. JTWC has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) on this disturbance.
External Links for TY MEGI (JUAN)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE,
RAGGED 40NM EYE SURROUNDED BY A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE EYE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 90 TO 115 KNOTS AS WELL AS THE RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 97 KNOTS...(more)
>> MEGI, meaning: Catfish. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE & INFORMATION SERVICE
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MEGI (JUAN)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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