for Thursday, 14 October 2010 [6:40 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Oct 14 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MEGI (15W).
MEGI (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM MEGI [15W/1013]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 14 October 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #006/SatFix/Recon
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MEGI (15W) almost a Typhoon while gaining strength to the north of Yap Island. This system may pose a serious threat to Luzon, Philippines in the coming days. A C-130 Reconnaissance Aircraft flew into the center of MEGI around 12:36 PM (04:36 GMT) and reported maximum surface winds of 115 km/hr (62 knots) with minimum sea level pressure of 986 millibars (hPa).
Residents and visitors along Western Micronesia particularly Ulithi and Yap Islands should closely monitor the progress of MEGI.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu Oct 14 2010
Location of Center: 12.6º N Lat 138.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 355 km (192 nm) NNE of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 410 km (222 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 655 km (355 nm) WSW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 4: 1,575 km (850 nm) ESE of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 400 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Thu Oct 14
MEGI's circulation has become better organized and is now developing an eyewall as confirmed on the aircraft recon report. The storm is expected to become a Category 1 typhoon tonight and will continue tracking WNW-ward into the Philippine Sea [2AM OCT 15: 13.5N 137.8E @ 120kph...2PM OCT 15: 14.5N 136.2E @ 140kph]. It will then enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening (Friday) and intensify further into a Category 2 typhoon [2AM OCT 16: 15.5N 134.3E @ 175kph]. By Saturday afternoon, MEGI will be moving into the central portion of the Philippine Sea - as a Major Typhoon (Category 3) with winds of almost 200 km/hr [2PM OCT 16: 16.4N 132.1E @ 195kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are now near 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. MEGI will continue to intensify through Saturday. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center. MEGI is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles) across.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Bending more towards the west...upgraded to Category 4, eyeing Northern Luzon [2PM OCT 17: 17.3N 127.6E @ 215kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: At near Super Typhoon strength (220 km/hr)...approaching the coast of Eastern Cagayan-Isabela-Northern Aurora Area...Storm Surge (Big Waves) lashing the eastern coast of Luzon [2PM OCT 18: 17.3N 123.5E @ 220kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Off the coast of La Union-Lingayen Area after crossing Northern Luzon...moving WSW towards the South China Sea...downgraded to Category 2 [2PM OCT 19: 16.8N 119.6E @ 175kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MEGI's rainband circulation are not yet affecting any major land areas. However, Yap and Ulithi Islands are expected to be under the system's southern outer rainbands tonight until early tomorrow morning. Moderate winds of 15 to 35 km/hr can be expected along Yap and Ulithi Islands (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (heavy) near the center of MEGI, especially along the northern portion (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA/1006 MB) very weak over the Southern Philippine Sea and will be absorbed into the circulation of MEGI within the next 24 hours. The ill-defined center of 91W was near lat 10.3N lon 131.3E...or about 660 km ESE of Borongan, Eastern Samar...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center...drifting East slowly. The 48-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system is now at 10% (Low Chance). Click here to view current satellite image and the flash-loop animation.
External Links for TS MEGI (15W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MEGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
EVIDENT. A 140422Z AMSR-E 36V IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC);
HOWEVER, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE YET OF AN EYE IN EITHER VISIBLE OR
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN
AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS, PRIMARILY
BASED ON AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA AT 140436Z INDICATING MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 62 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP OF 986 MB;
DVORAK ESTIMATES VARY WIDELY AND RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 35 KNOTS
(RJTD) TO 65 KNOTS (PGTW). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT FIX DATA AND THE AMSR-E IMAGE, WHICH
WERE COINCIDENT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
WEAK PRESSURE ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK
ANTICYLONIC FLOW FROM THE WEAKENING DISTURBANCE NEAR 10N 130E. THIS
DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BE DISRUPTING LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. TS 15W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 15 KNOT PER DAY RATE THROUGH TAU 24 DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE TO
THE WEST, HOWEVER, 15W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 24
DUE TO AN IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK
AT 120 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON AFTER TAU 96...(more)
>> MEGI, meaning: Catfish. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MEGI (15W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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