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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Oct 24 2010):
T2K added a Page 2 of the "Weather Station" link to include a network of Davis Weather Station around the Philippines. The first weather station to join us is the De La Salle Santiago Zobel Campus in Ayala Alabang, Muntinlupa City. You can visit this page to know how you can add your station.Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 16W (KATRING).
16W (KATRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W [KATRING]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 24 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #012/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 16W (KATRING) becoming better organized over the Philippine Sea...maintain its slow, WNW drift.
Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 16W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun Oct 24 2010
Location of Center: 15.9º N Lat 132.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 875 km (475 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 990 km (535 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 1070 km (578 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1125 km (607 nm) East of Baler, Aurora
Distance 5: 1190 km (643 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
18-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 130 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap #04 (for Public): 6 PM PhT Sun Oct 24
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
16W is expected to continue moving WNW to NW-ward slowly for the next 24 hours and then turn sharply Northward within 36 to 48 hours. This system will gain strength and become a Tropical Storm tomorrow, Monday [2PM OCT 25: 16.7N 131.1E @ 75kph...2AM OCT 26: 17.8N 130.5E @ 85kph...2PM OCT 26: 18.9N 130.1E @ 95kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: 16W at near-Typhoon strength as it recurves NNE-ward...about 865 km East of Itbayat, Batanes, PH [2PM OCT 27: 21.3N 130.1E @ 110kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strength as it moves slowly NNE in the direction of the sea south of Japan...about 400 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM OCT 28: 23.7N 130.5E @ 110kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to weaken as it moves out of the Philippines' Area of Forecasting Responsibility...about 330 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM OCT 29: 26.1N 131.3E @ 100kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
16W's circulation continues to improve, except for the north and northeastern portion. Below are the summary of the cyclone's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - None yet (click here to know more about CDO).
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - continues to become better organized over the Philippine Sea. Light to moderate winds (<35 kph) can be expected over the area today. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
18-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the developing rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 130 mm (modearate) located along 16W's periphery [view current NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - None (click here to know more about storm surge).
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with isolated to scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: MOST PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES. Light to moderate SW, South, SE winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today. The prevailing strong La Niña conditions over the Pacific Ocean enhances the ITCZ to be more active across the Philippines.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 16W (KATRING)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1610.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
710 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BAND AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION THAT IS SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND A 240449Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH CLOUD COVER AND POOR
MICROWAVE IMAGE RESOLUTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED BETWEEN
PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEGINNING TO
EMERGE AFTER THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH
MOVED FURTHER WESTWARD. TD 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER CHINA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD CAUSING THE STEERING RIDGE
TO WEAKEN AND REORIENT. THIS WILL THEN ALLOW TD 16W TO TURN POLEWARD
AROUND TAU 24. CONSEQUENTLY, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, FUELING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. AFTER
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AS IT
BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES DUE
TO STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OUT WITH NOGAPS AND WBAR FAVORING AN
EARLIER RECURVATURE. GFDN, UKMO AND JGSM ARE TRACKING TD 16W POLEWARD
INITIALLY AND THEN WESTWARD, PRESUMABLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH - AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE BUT TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE WESTWARD OUTLIERS...(more)
RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 18 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD 16W (KATRING)...go visit our website @:
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