for Saturday, 16 October 2010 [7:44 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Oct 16 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on MEGI (JUAN). The 3-hourly advisories will start commencing anytime this morning or noontime.
MEGI (JUAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
TYPHOON MEGI [JUAN/15W/1013]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 012
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sun 17 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #016/SatFix/Recon
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Major Typhoon MEGI (JUAN) has rapidly gained strength as it moves closer to Northern Luzon...reaches Category 4 status. This system is eyeing to become the first Super Typhoon of 2010. A US Air Force C-130 Reconnaissance Plane (part of the ITOP Research Team) is on the way this morning to investigate the center of MEGI.
Residents and visitors along Northern and Central Luzon particularly Cagayan and Isabela should closely monitor the progress of MEGI (JUAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs! PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tonight until tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun Oct 17 2010
Location of Eye: 18.7º N Lat 127.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 645 km (350 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 650 km (352 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 655 km (355 nm) ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 655 km (355 nm) ENE of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 5: 665 km (360 nm) NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 760 km (410 nm) ENE of Laoag City
Distance 7: 845 km (455 nm) NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 230 kph (125 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 280 kph (150 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Cagayan-Isabela Area
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 280 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 929 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 ft (9.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4.0-5.5 m]
T2K TrackMap #004 (for Public): 6 AM PhT Sun Oct 17
MEGI has begun showing a 24-km. well-defined eye w/ very strong eyewall convection. The typhoon is expected to continue moving westward across the Philippine Sea for the next 12 hours, before shifting its track to the WSW through 48 hours. MEGI is forecast to reach Super Typhoon intensity today...and will reach its peak strength of 270 km/hr...Category 5...by early tomorrow morning (Monday) [2PM OCT 17: 18.9N 126.4E @ 250kph...2AM OCT 18: 18.6N 124.2E @ 270kph]. The core will then make landfall over Cagayan Monday afternoon...traversing the provinces of Cagayan...Abra...Apayao...and Ilocos Provinces - late Monday evening until early Tuesday morning. [2PM OCT 18: 18.0N 122.0E @ 250kph...2AM OCT 19: 17.7N 120.0E @ 175kph]. Projected Landfall Area (Time): South of Escarpada Point, Northern Cagayan or along the central part of the Cagayan Mountains...about 70 km SE of Aparri on Monday afternoon (around 1 PM). MEGI will eventually emerge off the coast of Ilocos Sur on Tuesday morning.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 230 km/hr (125 knots) with higher gusts. MEGI is now a Category 4 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...continued strengthening is still expected before it makes landfall over Cagayan. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles). MEGI is now a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles) across.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Slows down while over the central part of the South China Sea...moving farther away from Luzon as it exits PAR...regains Category 3 status [2AM OCT 20: 17.5N 117.0E @ 205kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns sharply WNW in the direction of Southern China (Western Guangdong)...re-intensifies back to Category 4 [2AM OCT 21: 18.0N 115.1E @ 215kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching the southern coast of Guangdong (just south of Hong Kong) with increased wind speed of 220 kph [2AM OCT 22: 19.1N 113.5E @ 220kph].
Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that MEGI will track more west-northwestward towards Batanes and Taiwan -- if the rebuilding of the High Pressure Ridge north of the typhoon will not happen. The probability of this scenerio remains low at this time.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MEGI's core (eye and eyewall) and its rainbands continues to remain at sea and are not yet affecting any major land areas at this time. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds will be felt across Northeastern Luzon, particularly Cagayan and Isabela beginning late Sunday night or early Monday morning, Oct 18...turning into Typhoon Conditions throughout Monday (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 280 mm (heavy) near the center of MEGI, especially along the northern portion (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
Now In Effect: ISABELA, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.
Now In Effect: BATANES, ILOCOS PROVINCES, APAYAO, ABRA, KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE, LA UNION, BENGUET, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, AURORA, NORTHERN NUEVA ECIJA, AND PANGASINAN.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1 & 2 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for TY MEGI (JUAN)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
161525Z TRMM 85H MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED 13 NM EYE WITH
TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TY MEGI HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE FILLING OF AN INDUCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 127 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. TY MEGI IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD, AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LUZON AND INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24 AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD IN HIGHLY FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND UPPER LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL BY
18/06Z AT OR NEAR SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF LUZON, BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AT TYPHOON STRENGTH AND RE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD SOUTHERN CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT (TO INCLUDE GFDN AND NOGAPS). WBAR REMAINS AN OUTLIER,
TRACKING THE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF TAIWAN, BUT HAS BEEN TRENDING
SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE PAST FIVE MODEL RUNS. THIS FORECAST
IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR
WBAR, BUT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST
TRACK...(more)
>> MEGI, meaning: Catfish. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
RECENT TYPHOON2000 TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MEGI (JUAN)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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