for Thursday, 14 October 2010 [12:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Oct 14 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MEGI (15W).
MEGI (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM MEGI [15W/1013]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 14 October 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #005/SatFix/Recon
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Storm MEGI (15W) continues to intensify as it drifts WNW slowly...expected to pass due north of Ulithi-Yap Islands tonight.
Residents and visitors along Western Micronesia particularly Ulithi and Yap Islands should closely monitor the progress of MEGI.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Thu Oct 14 2010
Location of Center: 12.2º N Lat 139.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 335 km (180 nm) NNE of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 490 km (265 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 590 km (320 nm) WSW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 4: 1,520 km (820 nm) East of Samar, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Northern Caroline Islands
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 450 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Thu Oct 14
MEGI's circulation still consolidating with a possible banding eye. The storm is expected to move generally WNW for the next 2 days...becoming a Category 1 typhoon later today and will start accelerating. MEGI will be upgraded to a Category 2 typhoon tomorrow afternoon and enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the evening (Friday). It will become a major typhoon (Category 3) while moving across the Philippine Sea by Saturday morning [8AM OCT 15: 13.4N 137.3E @ 140kph...8PM OCT 15: 14.2N 135.4E @ 175kph...8AM OCT 16: 15.2N 133.5E @ 195kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. MEGI will continue to rapidly intensify through Saturday. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center. MEGI is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles) across.
SUNDAY MORNING: Still intensifying while moving across the central portion of the Philippine Sea...turning more westward [8AM OCT 17: 16.8N 129.3E @ 205kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Upgraded to Category 4 (near Super Typhoon strength)...heading westward towards Isabela-Northern Aurora Area...Storm Surge begins to affect the eastern coast of Luzon [8AM OCT 18: 17.2N 125.1E @ 220kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Just made landfall over Northern Luzon...center in the vicinity of Ifugao Province (just east of Banaue Rice Terraces)...weakens slightly (Category 3) [8AM OCT 19: 16.9N 121.4E @ 205kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MEGI's rainbands are not yet affecting any major land areas. However, Yap and Ulithi Islands are expected to be under the system's southern outer rainbands later today. Moderate winds of 15 to 35 km/hr can be expected along Yap and Ulithi Islands (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 450 mm (heavy) near the center of MEGI, especially along the northern portion (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA/1006 MB) remains weak over the Southern Philippine Sea and will be absorbed into the circulation of MEGI within the next 24 to 48 hours. The ill-defined center of 91W was near lat 9.6N lon 131.1E...or about 615 km East of Surigao City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...drifting South slowly. The 48-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system remains at 20% (Low Chance). Click here to view current satellite image and the flash-loop animation.
External Links for TS MEGI (15W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MEGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION IN THE CENTER OF THE STORM WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT EQUATORWARD AND TO THE EAST
INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE IS PUTTING SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENT BY THE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION WEST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AND LACK OF RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW...(more)
>> MEGI, meaning: Catfish. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MEGI (15W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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