Bushman's Typhoon Blog: October 2010

Sunday, October 31, 2010

XT Cyclone CHABA [KATRING] - Final Update

for Sunday, 31 October 2010 [6:30 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Oct 31 2010):

Now ending the 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on XT CHABA (KATRING).

CHABA (KATRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE CHABA [KATRING/16W/1014]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 027 **FINAL**
2:00 AM PhT (18:00 GMT) Sun 31 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JMA Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Extratropical (XT) Cyclone CHABA (KATRING) has gone deeper into the middle latitudes, away from the coast of Japan...across the cooler waters of the Northwest Pacific Ocean.

*This will be the last and final advisory on CHABA.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 2:00 AM PhT Sun Oct 31 2010
Location of Center: 36.0º N Lat 144.0º E Lon
Distance: 390 km (210 nm) East of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 45 kph (25 kts)
Towards: Northwest Pacific Ocean
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 75 mm (Light)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: XT
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 PM JST Sat Oct 30

FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*

No longer available as the system becomes Extratropical (XT).

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. CHABA is an Extratropical (XT) Cyclone. Wind radii no longer available at this category.

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

No longer available...due to system becoming XT Cyclone.

CURRENT EASTERLIES INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing showers to widespread rains can be expected along these following affected areas: EASTERN LUZON, BICOL REGION & EASTERN VISAYAS. Light to moderate East, ENE, NE winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected today. Strong easterlies (trade winds) are one of the signs of a strong La Nina climate occurring across the Pacific Ocean.

CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: REST OF VISAYAS, MASBATE, PALAWAN & REST OF MINDANAO. Light to moderate East, SE to variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY CHABA (KATRING)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1610.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 PM (12 GMT) SUN 31 OCTOBER POSITION: 35.3N 142.2E.
*EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 31 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE DEEPER INTO
THE MID-LATITUDES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE, BUT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN) AS THE SYSTEM IS NO
LONGER TROPICAL, AND IT IS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF JAPAN (BASED ON A
301041Z TMI 37H MICROWAVE IMAGE). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION...(more)

>> CHABA, meaning: Tropical flower (the shoeflower, genus hibiscus). Name contributed by: Thailand.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on XT Cyclone CHABA (KATRING)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Saturday, October 30, 2010

XT Cyclone CHABA [KATRING] - Update #026

for Saturday, 30 October 2010 [6:30 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Oct 29 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on XT CHABA (KATRING).

CHABA (KATRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE CHABA [KATRING/16W/1014]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 026
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 30 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #036/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

CHABA (KATRING) is now an Extratropical (XT) Cyclone...just passed to the South of Tokyo as it rapidly tracks toward the northeast across the NW Pacific Ocean.

Ships and boats navigating along the NW Pacific, south of the Kuril Islands should closely monitor the progress of CHABA.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat Oct 30 2010
Location of Center: 34.5º N Lat 140.7º E Lon
Distance: 160 km (87 nm) SE of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 43 kph (23 kts)
Towards: Northwest Pacific Ocean
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 150 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: XT
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft (6.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Sat Oct 30

FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*

XT Cyclone CHABA is expected to continue moving northeastward across the open sea for the next 24 hours and weaken [2AM OCT 31: 36.3N 143.0E @ 85kph...2PM OCT 31: 39.0N 147.1E @ 55kph].

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. CHABA is already an Extratropical (XT) Cyclone. Wind radii no longer available at this category.

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

No longer available...due to system becoming XT Cyclone.

CURRENT EASTERLIES INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing showers to widespread rains can be expected along these following affected areas: BICOL REGION, EASTERN VISAYAS & EASTERN MINDANAO. Light to moderate East, ENE, NE winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected today. Strong easterlies (trade winds) are one of the signs of a strong La Nina climate occurring across the Pacific Ocean.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SAT 30 OCTOBER POSITION: 33.6N 139.0E.
*EXTRATROPICAL (XT) CYCLONE 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS LOST ALL
IDENTIFIABLE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IS NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS
AN XT CYCLONE. FORMATIVE FRONTAL FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE EVIDENT
IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
AS THE SYSTEM EMBEDS WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. EXCESSIVE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR JET HAS DEPLETED DEEP
CONVECTION IN ALL BUT THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER, EVEN THIS
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES INTO THE MID-
LATITUDES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON DVORAK AND RADAR FIXES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN XT
DATA-T NUMBER OF 3.5 FROM PGTW, AND A CORRESPONDING CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 4.0...(more)

>> CHABA, meaning: Tropical flower (the shoeflower, genus hibiscus). Name contributed by: Thailand.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Reply to sender | Reply to group | Reply via web post | Start a New Topic

Messages in this topic (1)

Recent Activity:

New Members 5

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Typhoon CHABA [KATRING] - Update #025

for Saturday, 30 October 2010 [12:30 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Oct 29 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TY CHABA (KATRING).

CHABA (KATRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON CHABA [KATRING/16W/1014]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 025
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sat 30 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #035/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Typhoon CHABA (KATRING) continues to lose strength as it nears the coast of Southern Honshu...northern rainbands spreads across the area.

Residents and visitors along Southern Honshu should closely monitor the progress of CHABA.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sat Oct 30 2010
Location of Center: 32.8º N Lat 137.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 280 km (152 nm) SSE of Nagoya, Japan
Distance 2: 365 km (197 nm) SW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 130 kph (70 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph (85 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 35 kph (19 kts)
Towards: Southern Coast of Honshu
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 150 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft (6.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Sat Oct 30

FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*

CHABA is expected to become Extratropical later this afternoon or tonight. The decaying cyclone will pass more or less 150 km South of Tokyo late this afternoon to early evening, between 6-9 PM Japan Time (09-12 GMT) [8PM OCT 30: 34.8N 141.4E @ 100kph...8AM OCT 31: 37.6N 146.4E @ 75kph].

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 130 km/hr (70 knots) with higher gusts. CHABA is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 390 kilometers (210 nautical miles). CHABA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers (480 nautical miles).

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

CHABA's circulation continues to decay as it moves over an area of unfavorable environment. Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - breaking down as it remains at sea (south of Japan)...not affecting land areas. (click here to know more about CDO).
WEAKENING EYEWALL - remains at sea (south of Japan)...not affecting land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
NORTHERN SPIRAL RAINBANDS - spreading across Southern Honshu...becoming more intense along the coast. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 150 mm (moderate) near the center of CHABA [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Southern Japan, particulartly Southern and Eastern Honshu today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT NORTHEAST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing showers to widespread rains can be expected along these following affected areas: EASTERN LUZON & BICOL REGION. Lower temperatures (less than 30 degrees celsius) with cooler light to moderate NE winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected today.

CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: VISAYAS, MASBATE, PALAWAN & MINDANAO. Light to moderate East, SE to variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SAT 30 OCTOBER POSITION: 32.0N 137.2E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THAT THE EYE HAS COLLAPSED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARING NORTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MSI ALSO DEPICTS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
WITH INCREASING ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE WESTERN FLANK OF
THE SYSTEM AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE KANTO PLAIN. TY
16W IS TRACKING UNDER STRONG (50+ KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND HAS BEGUN TO DE-COUPLE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII ARE BASED PARTLY
ON OBSERVATIONS FROM JAPANESE COASTAL STATIONS AND OFF-SHORE ISLANDS
REPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 (RJTD, KNES) TO 77 KNOTS
(PGTW)...(more)

>> CHABA, meaning: Tropical flower (the shoeflower, genus hibiscus). Name contributed by: Thailand.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY CHABA (KATRING)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm