for Friday, 10 September 2010 [6:50 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 08 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY MERANTI (11W).
MERANTI (11W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
TYPHOON MERANTI [11W/1010]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 006
6:20 AM PhT (22:20 GMT) Fri 10 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #08/RadarFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MERANTI (11W) quickly strengthened into a Typhoon since last night and made landfall over Dongzhou Peninsula in Fujian Province...very near to the city of Quanzhou around 5AM (21 GMT) this morning. Typhoon conditions affecting the abovementioned areas.
Residents and visitors along Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of MERANTI.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 36 hours)*
Time/Date: 6:20 AM PhT Fri Sep 10 2010
Location of Center: 25.3º N Lat 118.6º E Lon [RADAR FIX]
Distance 1: 100 km (55 nm) NE of Xiamen, China
Distance 2: 115 km (62 nm) SW of Fuzhou, China
Distance 3: 305 km (165 nm) WNW of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 635 km (345 nm) NNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Fujian Province
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 390 km (210 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: N/A [Overland]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Fri Sep 10
MERANTI is expected to continue generally northward across Fujian Province today and gradually dissipate. It will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm later this morning and throughout the afternoon [2PM SEP 10: 26.8N 118.7E @ 95kph...2AM SEP 11: 28.7N 119.0E @ 65kph]. MERANTI will eventually weaken into a Tropical Depression by tomorrow morning and completely dissipate by Saturday afternoon while moving over Zhejiang Province [2PM SEP 11: 30.5N 119.5E @ 35kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are now near 120 km/hr (65 kts) with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (>117 km/hr) extend outward up to 30 kilometers (15 nautical miles) from the center...while Tropical Storm Force Winds extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
MERANTI's small circulation has strengthened rapidly and produced a midget eyewall and eye as it moved onshore off the Dongzhou Peninsula. Typhoon Conditions which started only a few hours ago prior to landfall - will gradually recede this morning...while Tropical Storm Conditions will continue to prevail throughout the morning across portions of Fujian Province. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands or over some areas of Southeastern China...with isolated amounts of up to 100 mm (moderate) near the center of MERANTI or over Dongzhou Peninsula and surrounding towns. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY MERANTI (11W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN ANIMATED RADAR LOOP FROM TAIWAN,
DEPICTS A MIDGET SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE AND A CONCENTRIC EYE-
WALL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND PAST SIX
HOUR MOTION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED RADAR LOOP AND A 091742Z
AMSRE 36 GHZ PASS DEPICTING A MICROWAVE EYE. SINCE TY 11W IS A
MIDGET SYSTEM, DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE INTENSITY.
THEREFORE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE AND DEFINED EYE-WALL IN MICROWAVE AND ON THE TAIWAN RADAR
LOOP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY MERANTI IS EXPERIENCING
ENHANCED OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL WEST OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER TAIWAN. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD AND IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS.
INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN CHINA WILL CAUSE
THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR, WHICH LOSES THE SYSTEM IN THE STRAIT OF
TAIWAN AFTER TAU 12. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS...(more)
>> MERANTI, meaning: A kind of tree. Name contributed by: Malaysia.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MERANTI (11W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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