for Friday, 17 September 2010 [6:54 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 17 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY FANAPI (INDAY).
FANAPI (INDAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
TYPHOON FANAPI [INDAY/12W/1011]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 009
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 17 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #011/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon FANAPI (INDAY) now moving very slowly northwestward...no change in strength.
Residents and visitors along Batanes, Okinawa-Ryukyus-Yaeyema Islands and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of FANAPI.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri Sep 17 2010
Location of Eye: 22.9º N Lat 127.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 400 km (215 nm) South of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 415 km (225 nm) ESE of Ishigaki Island
Distance 3: 665 km (360 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 680 km (367 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Ishigaki-Miyako-Taiwan Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 220 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft (6.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Fri Sep 17
FANAPI is expected to intensify and move more westward, as the strong high pressure area off the East China Sea continues to build. It will reach Category 2 tomorrow afternoon as it approaches Yaeyama and Miyako Islands [2PM SEP 18: 23.5N 125.5E @ 160kph]. By Sunday afternoon, FANAPI will make landfall over Eastern Taiwan, or in the vicinity of Hualien City [2PM SEP 19: 23.9N 121.5E @ 160kph] and then will start to cross the mountains of Central Taiwan late Sunday afternoon. It will be off Taiwan Strait by early Monday morning.
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 140 km/hr (75 kts) with higher gusts. FANAPI is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. Intensification of this system will proceed especially before it makes landfall over Taiwan. Typhoon Force Winds (>118 km/hr) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 205 kilometers (110 nm).
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over SE China (near the Fujian-Guangdong border) as a tropical storm...passing over Xiamen City [2PM SEP 20: 24.5N 117.5E @ 100kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipated over China Mainland [2PM SEP 21: 26.1N 114.5E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
FANAPI's compact circulation remains at sea with a cloud-filled irregular eye at the center. The advancing outer bands has already reached the islands of Miyako and Yaeyama...squalls and thunderstorms accompanied with gale force winds can be expected tonight until tomorrow. Tropical Storm Conditions are expected to arrive at these small islands tomorrow afternoon...and over the eastern portion of Taiwan beginning Sunday morning (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 220 mm (heavy) near the center of FANAPI (click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT I.T.C.Z. INTENSITY: WEAK >> Sunny to cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon or evening can be expected along the following affected areas: VISAYAS AND MINDANAO. Light SW, SE to variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected over these areas today.
Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA/1010 MB) has been spotted forming just off the coast of Central Vietnam. Located near lat 13.9N lon 109.8E...or about 205 km NNE of Nha Trang City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving NW slowly. This system has a 30% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY FANAPI (INDAY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1210.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH AN
IRREGULAR EYE DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST
IMAGERY AS WELL AS RADAR FIXES FROM OKINAWA (220 NM NORTH), THE
SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY TURNED NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE DEVELOPING
EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS HELD AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 75 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. TY 12W IS FORECAST
TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN NEAR TAU
48. AFTER RE-EMERGING OVER THE THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD INTO CHINA AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU
96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK. THE
17/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS ALSO SUPPORTS THIS TRACK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FILLS AND KICKS NORTHEASTWARD. THE
LATEST SOUNDING FROM NAZE INDICATES INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID- TO UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD
OVERALL OUTFLOW WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 90 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND SHOULD THEN WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION AFTER TAU 48. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
TAIWAN AND SHOULD MAINTAIN TS STRENGTH (55-60 KNOTS) UNTIL MAKING
LANDFALL OVER CHINA...(more)
>> FANAPI, meaning: Small atoll islands; sandy islands. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY FANAPI (INDAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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