for Thursday, 09 September 2010 [6:15 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 08 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MERANTI (11W).
MERANTI (11W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM MERANTI [11W/1010]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 09 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #06/RadarFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Storm MERANTI (11W) rapidly intensifying as it moves into the warm waters of the Taiwan Strait...endangers Fujian Province of China...Heavy rainbands affecting Taiwan and the Southeast Coast of China.
Residents and visitors along Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of MERANTI.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 36 hours)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu Sep 09 2010
Location of Center: 22.8º N Lat 119.0º E Lon [RADAR FIX]
Distance 1: 135 km (72 nm) WNW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 365 km (197 nm) NW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 400 km (215 nm) NW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 210 km (113 nm) SSE of Xiamen, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Fujian Province
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 120 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 390 km (210 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Thu Sep 09
MERANTI is expected to continue generally northward across Taiwan Strait and into the coastal areas of Fujian Province within the next 36 hours. Some strengthening is still likely before it makes landfall over the coast of Fujian Province tomorrow morning [2AM SEP 10: 23.6N 119.0E @ 95kph]. After making landfall, the storm will quickly dissipate overland, across Fujian Province tomorrow afternoon [2PM SEP 10: 25.8N 118.9E @ 65kph]. Complete dissipation is forecast by early Saturday morning over Zhejiang Province [2AM SEP 11: 27.9N 118.9E @ 35kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are now near 85 km/hr (45 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center, especially along the northeast and southeast quadrants.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
MERANTI's circulation has improved quickly while off the southern part of Taiwan Strait, with improved curvature and a banding eye...its rainbands are bringing moderate to strong winds w/ widespread rains & heavy thunderstorms across Taiwan and the coastal areas of Eastern Guangdong and Fujian. Tropical Storm Conditions are now occurring along the Taiwan Strait and across the offshore areas of Western Taiwan...and are expected to reach the onshore areas of Fujian Province tomorrow morning Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands or over some areas of Taiwan and Southeastern China...with isolated amounts of up to 120 mm (moderate) near the center of MERANTI or over the southern portion of Taiwan Strait. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Possible Storm Surge flooding of up to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...are possible along the coastal areas of Western Taiwan and Southeastern China today until tomorrow. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing rains and thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHWESTERN COAST OF LUZON (LA UNION UP TO ILOCOS PROVINCES), BATANES, CALAYAN, AND BABUYAN ISLANDS. Light to moderate SW, SSW or Southerly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected along these areas today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS MERANTI (11W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
A 090533Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A RADAR FIX FROM TAIWAN AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON KNES AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
45 KNOTS. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE FARTHER NORTHWESTWARD, WHICH HAS ALLOWED IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 11W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CHINA BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TS MERANTI IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CHINA. UNDER THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, TS 11W SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE
REACHING LAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO MODEL WHICH ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS TAIWAN. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF
CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UKMO MODEL AND IS WITHIN THE TIGHT
MODEL PACKING OF WBAR, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDN, JGSM, AND GFS...(more)
>> MERANTI, meaning: A kind of tree. Name contributed by: Malaysia.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MERANTI (11W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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