for Sunday, 05 September 2010 [6:27 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 03 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MALOU (HENRY).
MALOU (HENRY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM MALOU [HENRY/10W/1009]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 011
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 05 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #15/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MALOU (HENRY) moving Northward across the East China Sea...heading towards South Korea.
Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of MALOU.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun Sep 05 2010
Location of Center: 30.4º N Lat 125.9º E Lon [Relocated]
Distance 1: 350 km (190 nm) SSW of Cheju Island
Distance 2: 430 km (232 nm) ESE of Shanghai, China
Distance 3: 480 km (260 nm) NNW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 600 km (325 nm) SW of Busan, S.Korea
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Korean Peninsula
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 125 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft (6.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1 feet [0.3 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Sun Sep 05
TS MALOU will continue to move Northward slowly within the next 24 tp 48 hrs, before recurving NE-ward into South Korea...some strengthening is still likely tonight or tomorrow [2PM SEP 06: 32.0N 125.7E @ 85kph] . This system will be passing near Cheju Island by early Tuesday morning, before approaching the SW Coast of South Korea in the afternoon [2AM SEP 07: 33.1N 125.7E @ 85kph...2PM SEP 07: 34.5N 126.0E @ 75kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr (35 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 50 kilometers (28 nautical miles) from the center, especially along the northeast & southeast quadrant.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Traversing South Korea, weakens to a depression...becoming Extratropical [2PM SEP 08: 37.3N 128.2E @ 55kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Over the Sea of Japan...becomes Extratropical [2PM SEP 09: 38.7N 132.5E @ 45kph]
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching the Northernmost coast of Honsu (Japan) [2PM SEP 10: 39.8N 138.5E @ 45kph]
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
MALOU's circulation remains slightly organized...Northern rain bands now spreading across Cheju Island...and will extend into South Korea later tonight. Strong winds associated with this system are located mainly along these rain bands. Tropical Storm Conditions expected to reach Cheju Island early Tuesday morning...and over the SW Coast of South Korea beginning late Tuesday morning or noontime. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 125 mm (Moderate) near the center of MALOU. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off rains and thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, ABRA, KALINGA, WESTERN CAGAYAN, & BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN ISLANDS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS MALOU (HENRY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF BROAD CIRCULATION,
RESEMBLING A MONSOON GYRE PATTERN, WITH MULTIPLE SMALLER VORTICES EMERGING
FROM THE CENTER AND ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE GYRE. THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN TO NOR-
THERN PERIPHERY. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
WITHIN THESE CONVECTIVE BANDS. THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN RELOCATED FROM
A SMALLER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE BROAD CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD OF 35 KNOTS. TS MALOU IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH HAS ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD AND BEGIN ROUNDING THE STEERING RIDGE
AXIS AFTER TAU 36, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTH KOREA AFTER TAU 48.
DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, TS 10W SHOULD INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINC ZONE BY TAU 96 OVER THE
SEA OF JAPAN. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE NORTHWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE
RECURVING IT INTO THE WESTERLIES. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE JGSM, UKMO, AND ECMWF MODELS, WHICH RECURVE TS 10W NEAR SOUTH
KOREA...(more)
>> MALOU, meaning: Agate. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MALOU (HENRY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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