for Tuesday, 07 September 2010 [6:27 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 03 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MALOU (HENRY).
MALOU (HENRY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM MALOU [HENRY/10W/1009]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 017
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 07 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #23/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MALOU (HENRY) weakens as it picks up forward speed into the Sea of Japan...may become Extratropical tonight.
Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of MALOU.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 36 hours)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue Sep 07 2010
Location of Center: 35.5º N Lat 131.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 160 km (85 nm) NW of Hiroshima, Japan
Distance 2: 205 km (110 nm) ENE of Busan, S.Korea
Distance 3: 255 km (137 nm) WNW of Okayama, Japan
Distance 4: 535 km (290 nm) WSW of Osaka, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: ENE @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Towards: Honshu
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 160 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 425 km (230 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1 feet [0.3 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Tue Sep 07
TS MALOU is expected to continue moving on a fast-ENE track...will become Extratropical this evening, while off the NW coast of Honshu, Japan [2AM SEP 08: 35.7N 133.3E @ 55kph]. The system will weaken significantly upon traversing the Japan Alps over at Honshu tomorrow afternoon [2PM SEP 08: 36.1N 137.3E @ 35kph], and will pass just to the north of Metropolitan Tokyo tomorrow evening, before moving back out to sea [2AM SEP 09: 36.7N 143.2E @ 35kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) has decreased to 65 km/hr (35 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center, especially along the NE quadrant.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
MALOU's deep rain bands are no longer affecting the eastern part of South Korea, but will continue to spread across the northern coastlines of Honshu. Tropical Storm Conditions over Tsushima Island has quickly receded with improving weather overnight. Strong winds w/ some rains will be felt across the northern parts of Honshu overnight, reaching the central part by tomorrow.. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 160 mm (Heavy) near the center of MALOU. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains and heavy thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: REST OF LUZON particularly EXTREME NORTHERN PROVINCES OF LUZON. Light SSW or SW winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected along these areas.
Strong Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA/1004 MB) just east of Taiwan...continues to be bombarded by a 35-km/hr-upper-level winds (Vertical Wind Shear), thereby, displacing its thick-rain-cloud convection to the south and west of its center. It was located near lat 22.1N lon 122.7E...or about 190 km NNE of Basco, Batanes...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center...drfiting WSW slowly. Moderate to heavy rains will continue to affect the smaller islands of Extreme Northern Luzon (Batanes, Itbayat, Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands). The 24 to 48-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system remains at 70%. Click here to view current satellite visible image and flash animation.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS MALOU (HENRY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM NORTH OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TS 10W HAS STARTED TO INTERACT
WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN AND HAS BEGUN
TO ATTAIN A FRONTAL SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT AMSU
CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE A RAPIDLY WEAKENING WARM CORE. ADDITIONALLY,
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE FORMATION OF
A DELTA RAIN REGION WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THIS EVIDENCE, THE SYSTEM HAS
CLEARLY COMMENCED EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS NOW
TRACKING WITHIN STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW UNDER 30-40 KNOTS
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON JMA RADAR DATA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES, WHICH
RANGE FROM 35-45 KNOTS (CI ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45-55 KNOTS). THIS
ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM TSUSHIMA ISLAND
WHICH INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 22 GUSTING TO 31 KNOTS AND
MINIMUM SLP OF 999 MB AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED DIRECTLY OVER THE ISLAND
NEAR 07/03Z. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD AND SHOULD
COMPLETE ETT WITHIN THE NEXT 06-12 HOURS. MALOU SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE JAPAN ALPS, SO EXPECT A 20-25
KNOT EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE KANTO PLAIN BY
08/11Z. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED AND SUPPORTS THIS
TRACK...(more)
>> MALOU, meaning: Agate. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MALOU (HENRY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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