for Wednesday, 01 September 2010 [12:47 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun August 29 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web & e-mail advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA).
LIONROCK (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK [FLORITA/07W/1006]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 016
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Wed 01 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #20/CWB RADAR
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
LIONROCK (FLORITA) weakens slightly as it veers northward...passing near the coast of Western Taiwan...Taiwan under heavy rainbands that could produce flooding.
Residents and visitors along SE China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LIONROCK.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Wed Sep 01 2010
Location of Center [RADAR FIX]: 22.6º N Lat 119.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 70 km (38 nm) West of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 260 km (140 nm) SE of Xiamen, China
Distance 3: 340 km (183 nm) NW of Basco, Batanes, PH
Distance 4: 335 km (180 nm) SSW of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Taiwan Strait-SE China
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 230 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft (6.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Wed Sep 01
TS LIONROCK is expected to turn abruptly WNW-ward in the direction of Southern Fujian later tonight, with little change in strength [8PM SEP 01: 23.4N 119.4E @ 85kph]. The storm will be just offshore of Southern Fujian tomorrow morning, making landfall before noontime [8AM SEP 02: 24.3N 118.3E @ 75kph]. It will then be crossing the mountainous terrain of Fujian Province tomorrow evening and dissipate along the southern part of Jiangxi Province by Friday morning [8PM SEP 02: 24.9N 116.9E @ 45kph...8AM SEP 03: 25.3N 115.4E @ 35kph]..
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 175 kilometers (95 nautical miles) from the center.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
LIONROCK's circulation has spread over to the SE quadrant...thereby tropical storm force winds has expanded. Tropical Storm Conditions is now affecting the southwest coast of Taiwan...extending across the central and western part of Taiwan later tonight. These conditions will also reach Southern Fujian beginning early tomorrow morning. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) near the center of LIONROCK. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF LUZON including METRO MANILA, MINDORO, WESTERN BICOL, PARTS OF WESTERN VISAYAS AND THE BATANES-CALAYAN-BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A RADAR FIX FROM TAIWAN AND A
312333Z 37 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOW A MICROWAVE EYE, CONFIRMING
(WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE) THE CURRENT POSITION AND PAST SIX HOUR
MOTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN TAIWAN RADAR DATA, THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
EYE SIGNATURE, AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES THAT
RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM
LIES SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER AND HAS
CONTINUED TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE SOUTHEAST...(more)
>> LIONROCK, meaning: A famous peak in Hong Kong, overlooking Kowloon Bay. Name contributed by: Hong Kong.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:
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