for Friday, 24 September 2010 [5:40 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Sep 23 2010):
PAGASA already updated their local name roster for this year, 2010...MILENYO was replaced by MARIO...while REMING was replaced by RUBY. Meanwhile, T2K continues to issue 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY MALAKAS (13W).
MALAKAS (13W/1012) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 kph
TYPHOON MALAKAS [13W/1012]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 013
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 24 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #017/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon MALAKAS (13W) still gaining strength as it accelerates north-northeastward past the island of Chichi Jima.
Boats and ships along the northern shipping lanes of the NW Pacific Ocean should closely monitor the progress of MALAKAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri Sep 24 2010
Location of Eye: 27.9º N Lat 141.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 105 km (57 nm) NNW of Chichi Jima
Distance 2: 345 km (185 nm) NNE of Iwo To
Distance 3: 1,365 km (737 nm) ENE of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 41 kph (22 kts)
Towards: NW Pacific Ocean
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 150 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 31 ft (9.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Fri Sep 24
MALAKAS is currently displaying a 85-km diameter ragged eye with deep convective eyewall-clouds along its periphery, swirling counter-clockwise. The typhoon is expected to move farther away from Chichi Jima tonight, attaining Category 3 strength early tomorrow morning. It will be passing just to the east of Honshu, Japan...more or less 600 kilometers east of Tokyo by tomorrow afternoon [2AM SEP 25: 30.7N 143.1E @ 185kph...2PM SEP 25: 36.2N 146.1E @ 175kph]. MALAKAS is forecast to become an Extratropical Cyclone on Saturday as it moves just south of Kuril Islands and Kamchatka Peninsula [2AM SEP 26: 41.3N 150.8E @ 150kph...2PM SEP 26: 45.7N 157.1E @ 110kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 165 km/hr (90 knots) with higher gusts...additional strengthening is still likely tonight until tomorrow. MALAKAS remains a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 285 kilometers (155 nautical miles). MALAKAS is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles) across.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
Typhoon Conditions w/ Typhoon Force Winds over Iwo To Island have receded down to Tropical Storm Conditions...improving weather expected through the evening. Chichi Jima, on the other hand, is currently under Typhoon Conditions...but will gradually recede later tonight as MALAKAS moves farther away (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 150 mm (moderate) near the center of MALAKAS, particularly along Chichi Jima (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount). These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and landslides (mudslides). Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal and beach front areas of Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands today. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: WEAK >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms especially in the afternoon or evening can be expected along these following affected areas: CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, & VISAYAS. Light to moderate SE, East, to Variable winds (not in excess of 20 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY MALAKAS (13W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 8 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 45 NM DIAMETER RAGGED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A 240304Z TRMM
37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE WITH
ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES
OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 240532Z PGTW EYE
FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS AT THE HIGHER END
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD, BASED ON AN OFF HOUR 240232Z PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
102 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF TY
13W AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICYCLONIC
TURNING ALOFT. TY MALAKAS HAS ROUNDED THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 13W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BY TAU 12, DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, BEFORE BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TY 13W IS
EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH
BY TAU 48, AND SUSTAIN AS A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW AS IT
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY; THEREFORE THIS
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS...(more)
>> MALAKAS, meaning: Strong; powerful. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MALAKAS (13W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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